3872 Liberty Rd · Salem, OR 97302

$7,500,000

3960 bd · 3915.0 ba · 38,893 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Recently renovated 45 unit apartment community. New Hardi siding, new windows, new decks and exterior paint. Property benefits from a large 2 bed 2 bath floor plan in most units. Full size washers and dryers included in units. Qualified buyer can assume the existing loan with a 3.25% interest rate for approximately 3 more years. Call broker for full marketing package and loan info. Please do not disturb residents.

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• New hardi siding
• New decks

Tags

• NEW HARDI SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DECKS
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• FULL SIZE WASHERS AND DRYERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $7.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41k ($-494k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-8k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $928k (87.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $812k (89.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $812k (89.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.3% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,116/mo this rent would consume 113% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 1754% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5.25M; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $811,600 (89.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.11% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.50%
• DSCR: -0.05
• GRM: 77.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -68.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-3,846,502
• Equity at exit: $1,118,274

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.22×
• Total profit: $-6,769,993
• Equity at exit: $648,463

Cash invested: $2,100,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 385.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39,331
• Tax from tax record: −$5,081 /mo · $60,975/yr
• Insurance: −$3,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,704
• Net cashflow: $-41,125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $60,173

Max offer price $927,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36,880	-5% $-39,003	+0% $-41,125	+5% $-43,248	+10% $-45,371
Rent	-10% $-41,767	-5% $-41,446	+0% $-41,125	+5% $-40,805	+10% $-40,484
Rate	-1.0pp $-37,348	-0.5pp $-39,218	base $-41,125	+0.5pp $-43,069	+1.0pp $-45,046

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	2	2	$8,115
Total (5 units)			$8,116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875,000
• Closing costs: $225,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   listed $7,500,000 Active
3. 2024-09-27
   historical $1,350
4. 2024-09-14
   listed $1,350
5. 2022-05-11
   price $1,140
6. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus $5,250,000
7. 2014-05-29
   soldstatus $3,000,000
8. 2006-03-31
   soldstatus $2,475,000
9. 2002-06-28
   soldstatus $2,068,000
10. 1993-02-08
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $60,975 · $5,081/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $72,750 · $6,062/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,775/yr (+$981/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $97,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$420,117
• − Property taxes: −$60,975
• − Insurance: −$37,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,791
• − Management: −$7,791
• − Depreciation: −$218,182
• Taxable loss: −$654,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$157,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-336,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,799
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -382.78%
• Current HPI: 296.7837
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+435.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $7,500,000 RMLS
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-14 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2022-05-11 Price Changed $1,140 RENT.
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $5,250,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,000,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $2,475,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $2,068,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $60,975 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.