22010 Vernazza Bnd · Houston, TX 77447

$289,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily · 140 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,060 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $292k · at est. $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OUTSTANDING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CYPRESS GREEN! Popular Split Plan Layout! Impressive Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bath with Oversized Shower. Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Covered Patio & Sprinkler System Included! Awesome Community with Pool & Playground - AND Easy Access to the City of Cypress, the Grand Parkway, & 290. Estimated Completion - Spring 2026.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Oversized shower

Tags

• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,683
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -0.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22214 San Lioni Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+1%)	1mo	$333,990	$175	86
22002 Maddaloni View Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,922 (+2%)	1mo	$316,990	$165	85
21714 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+8%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	78
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-6%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	77
21927 Maddaloni View Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,013 (+7%)	1mo	$352,990	$175	76
19650 Costa Marra Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-11%)	1mo	$275,990	$165	69
21631 Carbonari Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,083 (+11%)	1mo	$343,990	$165	68
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-12%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	68
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-12%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	68
19615 Costa Marra Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-13%)	1mo	$266,990	$162	67
21934 Maddaloni View Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,162 (+15%)	1mo	$362,990	$168	63
21707 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+8%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,717
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-83,713
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $282,961

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $52	+0% $-49	+5% $-149	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-153	+0% $-49	+5% $56	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $25	base $-49	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	45d	1	0.42mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.52mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	0.59mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	4d	1	0.74mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	0d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-03-31
    price $289,990 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    OUTSTANDING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CYPRESS GREEN! Popular Split Plan Layout! Impressive Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bath with Oversized Shower. Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Covered Patio & Sprinkler System Included! Awesome Community with Pool & Playground - AND Easy Access to the City of Cypress, the Grand Parkway, & 290. Estimated Completion - Spring 2026.

14. 2026-03-03
    price $288,990 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    OUTSTANDING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CYPRESS GREEN! Popular Split Plan Layout! Impressive Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bath with Oversized Shower. Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Covered Patio & Sprinkler System Included! Awesome Community with Pool & Playground - AND Easy Access to the City of Cypress, the Grand Parkway, & 290. Estimated Completion - Spring 2026.

15. 2026-01-28
    price $289,990 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    OUTSTANDING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CYPRESS GREEN! Popular Split Plan Layout! Impressive Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bath with Oversized Shower. Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Covered Patio & Sprinkler System Included! Awesome Community with Pool & Playground - AND Easy Access to the City of Cypress, the Grand Parkway, & 290. Estimated Completion - Spring 2026.

16. 2026-01-28
    listed $322,990 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    OUTSTANDING NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN CYPRESS GREEN! Popular Split Plan Layout! Impressive Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bath with Oversized Shower. Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Covered Patio & Sprinkler System Included! Awesome Community with Pool & Playground - AND Easy Access to the City of Cypress, the Grand Parkway, & 290. Estimated Completion - Spring 2026.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,302
• After-tax cash flow: $719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Cypress Green is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good curb appeal, and a well-maintained interior. It offers a great opportunity for a buyer or renter looking for a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Enhances curb appeal and water efficiency.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and can increase property value.
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Enhances curb appeal and water efficiency. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $288,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $322,990 HARMLS