3904 Conley Downs Ln · Panthersville, GA 30034

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1992 0.39 ac lot $123/sqft · 30% below area Est $311k · 30% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your opportunity to own a huge Spacious 6bdrm 3.5 bath home with a partial in-law suite and room for a in home business... Home has new paint, in a nice neighborhood prime location close to the highway, stores, and restaurants! Roof only 4 years old and cosmetic upgrades thru out the home are about 5yrs old. Home also has a fenced in backyard and upper patio.

Key facts

• Partial in-law suite
• In home business
• Fenced in backyard

Tags

• PARTIAL IN-LAW SUITE
• IN HOME BUSINESS
• NEW PAINT
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• UPPER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#180 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $219k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,032 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,711
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -29.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3954 Riverside Pkwy	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,715 (-3%)	4mo	$269,900	$157	79
4069 Cress Way Run	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,715 (-3%)	5mo	$214,000	$125	77
3822 River Ridge Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,806 (+2%)	6mo	$250,000	$138	72
2928 Riverset Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,862 (+5%)	7mo	$265,000	$142	66
2876 River Close Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,607 (-10%)	1mo	$255,000	$159	65
2872 River Ridge Hl	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,898 (+7%)	3mo	$259,000	$136	64
3308 River Run Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,676 (-6%)	6mo	$210,000	$125	61
3268 Rivermist Cv	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-2%)	6mo	$245,000	$141	60
3789 Conley Downs Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-15%)	10mo	$215,000	$142	58
2993 Oakvale Hts	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-10%)	6mo	$210,000	$131	51
3732 Landgraf Cv	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+12%)	9mo	$253,000	$127	46
3297 Basking Shade Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,978 (+11%)	6mo	$219,500	$111	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-42,939
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-51,112
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30034

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,018/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $202,497

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3848 Laurenhill Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1834	$1,900	$1.04	5d	1	0.06mi
3868 Leyland Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,923	$1.47	43d	1	0.16mi
3830 Riverside Pkwy Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,860	$1.45	1d	1	0.18mi
3833 Conley Downs Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,743	$1.40	5d	1	0.19mi
4023 Riverside Pkwy Decatur, GA	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,090	$1.12	43d	1	0.26mi
3828 Landgraf Cv Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,073	$1.34	5d	1	0.29mi
2945 Woody Ct Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,850	$1.24	24d	1	0.32mi
3791 Landgraf Cv Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	2372	$2,270	$0.96	3d	1	0.38mi
3075 Dogwood Ave Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	1902	$2,270	$1.19	5d	1	0.45mi
3328 River Run Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,981	$1.19	1d	1	0.49mi
3644 Gray Birch Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,000	$1.08	20d	1	0.55mi
2943 Duncan Pl Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,800	$1.29	43d	1	0.65mi
3763 Soapstone Rd Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	24d	1	0.71mi
3716 Cress Way Dr Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	1669	$2,185	$1.31	5d	1	0.75mi
3075 Oakvale Hts Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,120	$1.17	12d	1	0.76mi
3575 Oakvale Rd Decatur, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1374	$1,095	$0.80	15d	4	0.82mi
3574 Saratoga Cir Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,103	$1.40	22d	1	0.88mi
3370 Flagstone Trce Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.5	2451	$2,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.89mi
3581 Oakvale Falls Ct Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1998	$2,080	$1.04	43d	1	0.90mi
3575 Oakvale Rd #402 Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,623	$1.14	1d	1	0.95mi
3525 Waldrop Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,695	$1.09	22d	1	0.99mi
3914 Waldrop Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1560	$1,697	$1.09	4d	1	1.00mi
3489 Waldrop Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.00mi
3516 Waldrop Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	43d	1	1.00mi
3906 Waldrop Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,700	$1.09	43d	1	1.00mi
6303 Waldrop Pl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,900	$1.47	43d	1	1.01mi
6201 Waldrop Pl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	18d	1	1.01mi
3474 Waldrop Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1412	$800	$0.57	43d	1	1.03mi
3169 Kingswood Gln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,575	$1.01	43d	1	1.04mi
11101 Waldrop Pl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,550	$1.20	43d	1	1.05mi
3101 Waldrop Pl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,395	$1.08	43d	1	1.10mi
3725 Patti Pkwy Decatur, GA	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,220	$1.16	43d	1	1.11mi
17301 Waldrop Cv Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,550	$1.20	18d	1	1.12mi
17301 Waldrop Cv Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,550	$1.20	43d	1	1.12mi
3821 River Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,195	$1.51	43d	1	1.12mi
3733 Waldrop Hills Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1646	$2,023	$1.23	43d	1	1.13mi
3804 Waldrop Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,850	$1.31	24d	1	1.16mi
3784 River Lake Shr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,900	$1.07	20d	1	1.16mi
3798 Waldrop Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,680	$1.19	20d	1	1.17mi
3342 Crestview Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,601	$1.24	5d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 373-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on marketlisting id $219,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-03-10
   price $239,900 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Don't miss your opportunity to own a huge Spacious 6bdrm 3.5 bath home with a partial in-law suite and room for a in home business... Home has new paint, in a nice neighborhood prime location close to the highway, stores, and restaurants! Roof only 4 years old and cosmetic upgrades thru out the home are about 5yrs old. Home also has a fenced in backyard and upper patio.

5. 2026-03-06
   historical
6. 2026-01-28
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2026-01-22
   price $249,900
8. 2026-01-01
   listed $229,900 New 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Don't miss your opportunity to own a huge Spacious 6bdrm 3.5 bath home with a partial in-law suite and room for a in home business... Home has new paint, in a nice neighborhood prime location close to the highway, stores, and restaurants! Roof only 4 years old and cosmetic upgrades thru out the home are about 5yrs old. Home also has a fenced in backyard and upper patio.

9. 2025-12-31
   listed $279,900 New
10. 1992-11-02
    soldstatus $80,900
11. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $330,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,018 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,018 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$5,018
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $28/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Panthersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #11244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,847
• Household income: $63,517
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1659.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.92%
• Current HPI: 209.5638
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $249,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $279,900 GAMLS
• 1992-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,900 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,018 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.