6479 Lynnwood Cir · Bagdad, FL 32583

$212,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2007 2.02 ac lot Est $194k · 9% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's an opportunity to call your own shots! Offering a 2007 Built Manufactured Home w/ a Metal Roof & situated on 2.02 acres ~ Little bit of "Country feel", yet super convenient to all amenities possible, even the Freeway! This is an AS-IS Sale ~ 4 Bedrooms/2 Baths ~ The Double Sided Fireplace separates 2 Large Rooms (Living Room & Den). Cash Only. Almost 2000 sf of Spacious Living ~ NO CARPET:) ~ Both Bathrooms have Double vanities. Same Flooring throughout & less than 3 years old. Seller took the initiative & had a 4 POINT inspection performed on 4/21 & is happy to share the report for your review! Full Disclosure at its' Finest:) However, Seller

Key facts

• Open space living
• Metal roof
• 2.02 acres

Tags

• DOUBLE SIDED FIREPLACE
• METAL ROOF
• 2.02 ACRES
• OPEN SPACE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is an interior lot of about 2.02 acres with irregular dimensions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; Front entrance parking; Guest parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring; Cable available; Paved road with county maintenance
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured or modular home; One story; Off-grade foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Insulation (energy efficient)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered porch; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Floor furnace; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Smoke detector(s); Not updated bathroom features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $212k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,312 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.68%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6479 Lynnwood Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,944 (0%)	1mo	$193,500	$100	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,523
• Equity at exit: $31,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $47,057
• Equity at exit: $18,373

Cash invested: $59,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,114
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,848/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $212,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,125
• Closing costs: $6,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.44mi
6304 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2012	$2,300	$1.14	23d	1	0.48mi
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	23d	1	0.91mi
4718 Lemoyne Vista Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	23d	1	0.91mi
4851 Jaimee Leigh Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	23d	1	1.25mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	23d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-05-15
   status Active
4. 2026-05-14
   historical Contingent
5. 2026-05-12
   price $212,500
6. 2026-05-05
   price $215,000
7. 2026-05-02
   price $219,000
8. 2026-04-30
   price $219,500
9. 2026-04-21
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,903
• − Property taxes: −$1,848
• − Insurance: −$1,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$6,182
• Taxable income: $1,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $212,500 PARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $215,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $219,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $219,500 PARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $225,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,848 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.