16482 Pisces Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2001 9,931 sqft lot $96/sqft · 6% below area Est $160k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This stunning 1 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and is nestled in the gorgeous subdivision of Emerson Estates in Conroe, TX. Upon entering, you are welcomed with a very spacious family room that leads you right into the dining and kitchen area. Adjacent to the kitchen is a functional laundry room, complete with a washer and dryer to convey with the home. Separate tub and shower in primary bathroom. All bedrooms are generously sized. Large, fenced backyard! In addition, you have your own driveway that leads right up to your home. What more could you ask for? This home is a MUST SEE.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Spacious family room
• 9,931 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 10419% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.56%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,990
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -6.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16482 Pisces Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$96	99
16447 N Emerson Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$139,900	$89	92
16306 Crockett Martin Estates Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$179,000	$114	65
16439 Brittany Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	10mo	$165,000	$123	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,377
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $53,692
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,787/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	0.91mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	43d	1	0.91mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Welcome home! This stunning 1 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and is nestled in the gorgeous subdivision of Emerson Estates in Conroe, TX. Upon entering, you are welcomed with a very spacious family room that leads you right into the dining and kitchen area. Adjacent to the kitchen is a functional laundry room, complete with a washer and dryer to convey with the home. Separate tub and shower in primary bathroom. All bedrooms are generously sized. Large, fenced backyard! In addition, you have your own driveway that leads right up to your home. What more could you ask for? This home is a MUST SEE.

2. 2026-05-05
   historical $1,425

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Welcome home! This stunning 1 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and is nestled in the gorgeous subdivision of Emerson Estates in Conroe, TX. Upon entering, you are welcomed with a very spacious family room that leads you right into the dining and kitchen area. Adjacent to the kitchen is a functional laundry room, complete with a washer and dryer to convey with the home. Separate tub and shower in primary bathroom. All bedrooms are generously sized. Large, fenced backyard! In addition, you have your own driveway that leads right up to your home. What more could you ask for? This home is a MUST SEE.

3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Welcome home! This stunning 1 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and is nestled in the gorgeous subdivision of Emerson Estates in Conroe, TX. Upon entering, you are welcomed with a very spacious family room that leads you right into the dining and kitchen area. Adjacent to the kitchen is a functional laundry room, complete with a washer and dryer to convey with the home. Separate tub and shower in primary bathroom. All bedrooms are generously sized. Large, fenced backyard! In addition, you have your own driveway that leads right up to your home. What more could you ask for? This home is a MUST SEE.

4. 2026-04-23
   listed $1,425
5. 2026-04-22
   listed $149,900 Active 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Welcome home! This stunning 1 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and is nestled in the gorgeous subdivision of Emerson Estates in Conroe, TX. Upon entering, you are welcomed with a very spacious family room that leads you right into the dining and kitchen area. Adjacent to the kitchen is a functional laundry room, complete with a washer and dryer to convey with the home. Separate tub and shower in primary bathroom. All bedrooms are generously sized. Large, fenced backyard! In addition, you have your own driveway that leads right up to your home. What more could you ask for? This home is a MUST SEE.

6. 2024-09-12
   historical $1,475
7. 2024-09-12
   historical
8. 2024-09-10
   price $1,475
9. 2024-09-07
   listed $1,549
10. 2024-09-06
    listed $164,900 Active
11. 2024-08-28
    historical $1,549
12. 2024-08-27
    historical
13. 2024-08-22
    listed $1,549
14. 2024-08-20
    price $164,900
15. 2024-08-16
    listed $174,900 Active
16. 2015-06-30
    soldstatus
17. 2013-06-26
    historical
18. 2013-06-24
    soldstatus
19. 2013-06-14
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2013-06-04
    status Pending
21. 2013-05-30
    status Option Pending
22. 2013-05-20
    price $46,900
23. 2013-05-01
    listed $55,900 Active
24. 2010-04-05
    soldstatus
25. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus
26. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus
27. 2004-04-26
    historical
28. 2004-04-13
    listed $35,900
29. 2004-03-30
    historical
30. 2003-10-29
    listed $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,787 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$956/yr (+$80/mo · 53.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,787
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $4,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $5,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-96.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Rental Removed $1,425 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed for Rent $1,425 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Rental Removed $1,475 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $1,475 HARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed for Rent $1,549 HARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Rental Removed $1,549 HARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,549 HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2015-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-20 Price Changed $46,900 HARMLS
• 2013-05-01 Listed $55,900 HARMLS
• 2010-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-04-13 Listed $35,900 HARMLS
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-10-29 Listed $35,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,787 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.