302 W Greenwich Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1959 8,138 sqft lot Est $197k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here is your new Home! This is a Beautiful Home located in the peaceful community of Kearny, AZ. This three bedroom two bath home has so much to offer. Large corner lot, ceramic tile flooring, Updated bathrooms, Updated kitchen. A bonus room that has so many uses, can be used as a den, office or whatever you would imagine, heated and cooled with the central AC/Heat and has its own entry door Large interior storage room. Large utility/laundry room. Very nice back porch perfect for enjoying the sunrise and entertaining friends and family. Fully fenced back yard. Dual pane windows throughout the home. Central AC/Heat to keep your house at the perfect temperature. Newer shingled roof installed

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM
• INTERIOR STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size per assessor: 8,138 (source: Assessor); Directions: From SR-177, turn on Upton Rd and proceed to Greenwich Rd.
• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Electric: 220 volts to kitchen
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Painted block construction; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Asphalt road access (city maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; 220-volt outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 W Greenwich Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$127	99
423 W Jamestown Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+2%)	6mo	$226,000	$152	67
426 W Essex Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-5%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	66
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-14%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	59
301 W Fairhaven Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+12%)	20mo	$159,900	$98	57
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	57
602 S York Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+13%)	18mo	$172,000	$104	51
504 W Hartford Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-6%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	50
429 W Fairhaven Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,429 (-2%)	17mo	$146,000	$102	49
418 W Hartford Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-14%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	48
429 W Greenwich Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,293 (-11%)	16mo	$175,000	$135	42
437 W Hartford Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-14%)	17mo	$114,000	$91	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $110,929
• Equity at exit: $169,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $319,729
• Equity at exit: $365,243

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $773/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,429

Max offer price $188,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $189	+0% $135	+5% $82	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $72	+0% $135	+5% $199	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $183	base $135	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   listed $188,000 Active
3. 2022-11-15
   soldstatus $160,000
4. 1977-11-29
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$773
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$1,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+623.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $188,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1977-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $773 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.