617 Sarah Ct · Oronogo, MO 64855

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 2007 9,600 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home. New roof August 2025. Spacious living room with fireplace. Webb City School. Privacy fence. Neighborhood lake and walking trails. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Neighborhood lake
• Privacy fence
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• PRIVACY FENCE
• NEIGHBORHOOD LAKE
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence, freestanding
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story (above grade finished area 1,500)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Privacy wood fencing; Level topography; Landscaped yard; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central heating; Heat pump; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-252/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#156 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Webb City R-VII (suburban): math 53% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #21 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Webb City Middle (math 53% / reading 55%, grade B-, #46 of 391 statewide, top 12%, 696 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,185 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $112,416
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $331,953
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64855

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,241/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $205,287

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $38	+0% $-21	+5% $-80	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-84	+0% $-21	+5% $42	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $32	base $-21	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Sarah Ct Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.03mi
745 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,550	$1.09	22d	1	0.05mi
1101 Downy Dr Oronogo, MO	4.0	2.0	1423	$1,749	$1.23	22d	1	0.17mi
609 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,400	$0.97	22d	1	0.17mi
1100 Pawpaw Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,550	$1.28	22d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home. New roof August 2025. Spacious living room with fireplace. Webb City School. Privacy fence. Neighborhood lake and walking trails. Schedule your tour today!

2. 2026-05-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home. New roof August 2025. Spacious living room with fireplace. Webb City School. Privacy fence. Neighborhood lake and walking trails. Schedule your tour today!

3. 2026-05-18
   listed $209,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home. New roof August 2025. Spacious living room with fireplace. Webb City School. Privacy fence. Neighborhood lake and walking trails. Schedule your tour today!

4. 2026-05-18
   listed $209,000 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home. New roof August 2025. Spacious living room with fireplace. Webb City School. Privacy fence. Neighborhood lake and walking trails. Schedule your tour today!

5. 2021-06-30
   soldstatus 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Real nice home in Webb City schools and nice family area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths, 1450 sq ft, above ground pool, fenced yard, neighborhood lake and walking trails.

6. 2021-06-30
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Real nice home in Webb City schools and nice family area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths, 1450 sq ft, above ground pool, fenced yard, neighborhood lake and walking trails.

7. 2021-05-21
   listed $156,900 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Real nice home in Webb City schools and nice family area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths, 1450 sq ft, above ground pool, fenced yard, neighborhood lake and walking trails.

8. 2007-06-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,241
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$3,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$942
• After-tax cash flow: $690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webb City R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2931500
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,022
• Composite: 47.68/100
• National rank: #2244
• State rank: #21 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oronogo

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #8706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oronogo, MO
• City population: 16,360
• Population (ZIP): 2,629

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.47%
• Current HPI: 254.495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-20 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-18 Listed $209,000 OGAR
• 2026-05-18 Listed $209,000 SOMO
• 2021-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2021-05-21 Listed $156,900 OGAR
• 2007-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,241 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.