37743 Geiger Rd · Zephyrhills West, FL 33542

$228,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 2025 4,253 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand-New Jacobsen Home – Own your own land – No Lot Rent & No HOA Fees 3 Bedrooms | 2 Baths | 1,344 Sq. Ft. This brand-new Jacobsen home offers an open, spacious floor plan with split bedrooms, a separate dining area, and an inside laundry room. Designed in neutral colors with stainless steel appliances, it’s move-in ready and easy to make your own. Located close to town, shopping, and medical facilities for everyday convenience. • 1-Year Warranty Included • Modern, open design • Private owner’s suite Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Own your own land
• No lot rent
• No hoa fees

Tags

• OWN YOUR OWN LAND
• NO LOT RENT
• NO HOA FEES
• OPEN SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.1 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Water source: see remarks
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Inside utility room; Crawlspace foundation access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (39.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (50.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (50.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $229k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,983 (50.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37741 Newal Ave	0.23mi	1/1.0	564 (+13%)	8mo	$80,000	$142	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,797
• Equity at exit: $34,144

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-118,206
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,781

Max offer price $139,526

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-377	-5% $-442	+0% $-506	+5% $-571	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-552	+0% $-506	+5% $-461	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-448	base $-506	+0.5pp $-566	+1.0pp $-626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	26d	1	0.39mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	18d	1	0.45mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,466	$1.71	0d	141	0.56mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	26d	1	0.63mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	26d	1	0.89mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	26d	1	0.93mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	26d	1	1.03mi
6991 Fort King Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$899	$1.80	26d	1	1.04mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.07mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	1.07mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	18d	1	1.08mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	1.08mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.08mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	26d	1	1.18mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	23d	1	1.19mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	26d	1	1.29mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	26d	1	1.32mi
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	26d	1	1.34mi
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	18d	2	1.39mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,999 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,999 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,999 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $228,999 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,999 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $229,999
16. 2026-04-17
    price $236,999
17. 2026-03-03
    status Active
18. 2026-02-07
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-14
    price $237,999
20. 2025-11-21
    price $239,999
21. 2025-10-29
    price $244,400
22. 2025-09-11
    listed $244,900 Active
23. 2024-07-19
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$573/yr (+$48/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$10,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,513
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $229,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $236,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $237,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $239,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $244,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.