412 E Walnut St · Seguin, TX 78155

$152,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1965 8,015 sqft lot $177/sqft · 11% below area Est $171k · 11% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom home on a spacious corner lot in Seguin! This turnkey home features a smart, open-concept layout that makes the most of every space. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, a brand-new HVAC system, new exterior doors, and added kitchen cabinet storage. Enjoy a fully fenced yard with a gated driveway—perfect for privacy, pets, or entertaining—plus the convenience of indoor washer and dryer space. Tucked away on a quiet street just minutes from Texas Lutheran University, the Guadalupe River, and Historic Downtown Seguin, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for anyone looking for value in a growing area!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Gated driveway
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• RECENT UPDATES
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GATED DRIVEWAY
• INDOOR WASHER AND DRYER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Located in the ACRE subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway / on-site parking (details not specified)
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City sewer; City water (implied); Electric service
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Front faces south; Located in the ACRE subdivision
• Construction: Approximately 61 years old; Siding and cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner, level lot; Chain link fence; Storage building / shed; Gutters; Street paved (city street)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (20 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with ceiling fan (12 x 13); Bedroom 2 (12 x 12); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); One central air-conditioning unit
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen with open floor plan; Utility room inside; Attic access only; Ground level / no steps; All bedrooms on lower level; Laundry on main level; All window coverings remain; City garbage service; Washer and dryer connections; Electric water heater; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room on main level; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,755 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,227
• List price: $152,900
• Delta: -10.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 E Elm St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (+5%)	2mo	$125,000	$138	78
510 N Camp St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (+2%)	17mo	$179,000	$202	64
714 S Milam St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-8%)	2mo	$148,900	$188	54
1033 N Milam St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+5%)	11mo	$179,990	$198	53
618 S Saunders St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	834 (-4%)	3mo	$185,000	$222	53
1029 N Milam St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-4%)	16mo	$174,000	$209	53
406 Bismark St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+7%)	18mo	$159,900	$173	48
804 N Guadalupe St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	18mo	$150,000	$179	47
903 E Ireland St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+7%)	21mo	$189,900	$206	47
857 E Ireland St	0.37mi	3/2.0	952 (+10%)	21mo	$139,400	$146	44
708 S Goodrich	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+4%)	14mo	$210,000	$233	44
161 Antelope Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	13mo	$319,000	$332	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,403
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,571
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,593/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $152,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
809 Leissner St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,175	$1.15	23d	1	0.37mi
404 W Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,550	$1.56	43d	1	0.41mi
714 S River St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,285	$1.37	23d	1	0.54mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	23d	1	0.67mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	14d	1	0.67mi
508 Pitts St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	12d	1	0.67mi
519 E Pine St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,150	$1.71	2d	1	0.75mi
968 E Cedar St Unit 1 Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	43d	1	0.77mi
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	23d	1	0.85mi
908 Pecan St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	16d	1	0.89mi
906 San Antonio Ave Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	43d	1	0.98mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,275	$1.17	4d	1	0.99mi
1386 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,270	$1.15	43d	1	1.11mi
1400 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,775	$1.70	1d	10	1.12mi
1701 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,464	$1.42	4d	1	1.21mi
800 N Highway 123 Byp Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$771	$0.91	43d	1	1.22mi
1111 N Highway 123 Byp Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	677	$1,550	$2.29	1d	17	1.37mi
402 Trefger St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,395	$1.27	23d	1	1.39mi
1168 Sycamore St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	1d	1	1.39mi
415 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	14d	1	1.41mi
502 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	20d	1	1.45mi
502 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	21d	1	1.45mi
745 Harry Miller Pass Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$1,950	$1.83	1d	40	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $152,900 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,900 Active Option 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,900 Active Option 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,900 Active Option 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $152,900 Active Option 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $152,900 Active Option 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom home on a spacious corner lot in Seguin! This turnkey home features a smart, open-concept layout that makes the most of every space. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, a brand-new HVAC system, new exterior doors, and added kitchen cabinet storage. Enjoy a fully fenced yard with a gated driveway—perfect for privacy, pets, or entertaining—plus the convenience of indoor washer and dryer space. Tucked away on a quiet street just minutes from Texas Lutheran University, the Guadalupe River, and Historic Downtown Seguin, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for anyone looking for value in a growing area!

7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $152,900 Price Change 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $152,900 Price Change 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   pricestatus $152,900 Price Change 32 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 32 DOM

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom home on a spacious corner lot in Seguin! This turnkey home features a smart, open-concept layout that makes the most of every space. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, a brand-new HVAC system, new exterior doors, and added kitchen cabinet storage. Enjoy a fully fenced yard with a gated driveway—perfect for privacy, pets, or entertaining—plus the convenience of indoor washer and dryer space. Tucked away on a quiet street just minutes from Texas Lutheran University, the Guadalupe River, and Historic Downtown Seguin, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for anyone looking for value in a growing area!

11. 2026-04-29
    listed $154,900 New 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom home on a spacious corner lot in Seguin! This turnkey home features a smart, open-concept layout that makes the most of every space. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, a brand-new HVAC system, new exterior doors, and added kitchen cabinet storage. Enjoy a fully fenced yard with a gated driveway—perfect for privacy, pets, or entertaining—plus the convenience of indoor washer and dryer space. Tucked away on a quiet street just minutes from Texas Lutheran University, the Guadalupe River, and Historic Downtown Seguin, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for anyone looking for value in a growing area!

12. 2026-04-29
    listed $154,900 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom home on a spacious corner lot in Seguin! This turnkey home features a smart, open-concept layout that makes the most of every space. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, a brand-new HVAC system, new exterior doors, and added kitchen cabinet storage. Enjoy a fully fenced yard with a gated driveway—perfect for privacy, pets, or entertaining—plus the convenience of indoor washer and dryer space. Tucked away on a quiet street just minutes from Texas Lutheran University, the Guadalupe River, and Historic Downtown Seguin, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for anyone looking for value in a growing area!

13. 2024-11-27
    soldstatus
14. 2024-11-15
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2024-10-24
    price $140,000
16. 2024-09-23
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 1986-11-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,593 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,205/yr (+$100/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$1,593
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable loss: −$1,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $1,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-06-11 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-06-03 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-06-03 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $152,900 LERA
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $152,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $154,900 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Listed $154,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-15 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $140,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $160,000 CTXMLS
• 1986-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,593 · -18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.