302 S Paseo Aguila · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated with new cabinets, inside w&d, and much more. Must see to believe!

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Walking paths
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• BRAND NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• GRASSY NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• WALKING PATHS
• HEATED POOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1964
• Construction: Living area of approximately 696
• Exterior features: Located in the Haven Green Valley East subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-3,488
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $22,943
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	23d	1	0.08mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.08mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	23d	1	0.10mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	23d	1	0.13mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	23d	1	0.13mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.24mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.24mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	23d	1	0.26mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.34mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	14d	1	0.36mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	1d	1	0.47mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	1d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $90,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-02-25 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2019-02-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-02-14 Listed $82,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-01-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-01-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-12-14 Listed $52,900 MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-07 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-07-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +48.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.