143 King Fisher · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1999 $153/sqft · 24% below area $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming property with access to beautiful Lake Cypress Springs, located in the desirable Pelican Bay community. This move-in ready home sits on four lots, offering plenty of space for outdoor living, gardening, or additional parking. The property includes a separate fully equipped cabin with kitchen, living area, bedroom, and bath—perfect for guests, extended family, or additional rental potential. Outdoor features include a large backyard ideal for cookouts and entertaining, a second carport for boat storage, a detached screened building, two storage sheds, and a small workshop perfect for keeping tools and outdoor equipment organized. The front and back yards are divided by chain-link fencing with gates, providing convenience for pets or separate outdoor spaces. Residents enjoy HOA amenities including an Olympic-size swimming pool, community building, playground, dock, and boat ramp with direct access to the lake.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Small workshop
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• ACCESS TO LAKE CYPRESS SPRINGS
• SEPARATE FULLY EQUIPPED CABIN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED SCREENED BUILDING
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• SMALL WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.61%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,703
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -59.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $79,996
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $205,160
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,143/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Miller Rd Scroggins, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,450	$2.32	43d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $155,000 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Charming property with access to beautiful Lake Cypress Springs, located in the desirable Pelican Bay community. This move-in ready home sits on four lots, offering plenty of space for outdoor living, gardening, or additional parking. The property includes a separate fully equipped cabin with kitchen, living area, bedroom, and bath—perfect for guests, extended family, or additional rental potential. Outdoor features include a large backyard ideal for cookouts and entertaining, a second carport for boat storage, a detached screened building, two storage sheds, and a small workshop perfect for keeping tools and outdoor equipment organized. The front and back yards are divided by chain-link fencing with gates, providing convenience for pets or separate outdoor spaces. Residents enjoy HOA amenities including an Olympic-size swimming pool, community building, playground, dock, and boat ramp with direct access to the lake.

17. 2025-11-12
    price $165,000
18. 2025-10-16
    price $179,500
19. 2025-09-24
    price $185,000
20. 2025-08-28
    price $189,500
21. 2025-08-09
    price $192,500
22. 2025-07-19
    price $195,000
23. 2025-06-05
    price $197,500
24. 2017-09-11
    soldstatus
25. 2017-08-18
    listed $109,000
26. 2007-11-28
    soldstatus
27. 1999-05-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,143 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,143
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $18,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,422
• After-tax cash flow: $15,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $155,000 GTAR
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $165,000 GTAR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $179,500 GTAR
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $185,000 GTAR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $189,500 GTAR
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $192,500 GTAR
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $195,000 GTAR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $197,500 GTAR
• 2017-09-11 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-08-18 Listed $109,000 GTAR
• 2007-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,143 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.