10641 23rd St NW · Mandaree, ND 58847

$115,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,900 sqft · Other · 128 Days on market

Built 1950 2.00 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Remodeled church
• Egress windows
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• EGRESS WINDOWS
• REMODELED CHURCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Drive-through and circular driveway; Gravel/unpaved parking and parking lot; RV access/parking; Additional parking; No garage; Underground parking; See remarks
• Utilities: Private well water; Water connected; Septic tank; Sewer connected; Propane available; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Phone and cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction with concrete components; Concrete perimeter foundation; Asphalt/composition roof; Built with concrete elements
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Garden; Gray water system; Exterior lighting; Satellite dish; Views; Sloped, wooded and private lot; Rectangular lot; Gravel road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Basement: Full concrete basement with interior entry, partially finished
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood; Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ceiling fan cooling; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#309 in ND) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mckenzie County 1 (rural): math 33% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #34 of 53 in ND (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Badlands Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 566 students, 42% FRL); Watford City Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #29 of 35 statewide, top 82%, 455 students, 33% FRL); Watford City High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 144 statewide, top 90%, 477 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in McKenzie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($802 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McKenzie County population projected at +180% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,079 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.55%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $45,925
• Equity at exit: $52,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $118,640
• Equity at exit: $80,382

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58847

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $115,999

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $535	+0% $502	+5% $469	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $381	-5% $441	+0% $502	+5% $563	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $532	base $502	+0.5pp $472	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,999 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,999 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,999 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,999 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,999 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,999 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,999 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,999 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,999 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,999 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,999 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,999 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,999 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,999 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $115,999
16. 2026-02-11
    listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 69.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $4,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $4,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckenzie County 1
• NCES district ID: 3812540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,150
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5902
• State rank: #34 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandaree

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #22033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 226

Population outlook (McKenzie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,775 people
• By 2030: 37,834 · +31.5%
• By 2040: 58,116 · +102.0%
• By 2050: 80,685 · +180.4%
• By 2075: 142,630 · +395.7%
• By 2100: 200,986 · +598.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Native American 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 27% Romanian 10% Subsaharan African 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · McKenzie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $115,999 GNMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $149,999 GNMLS

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $670 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.