9628 234th St · Port Byron, IL 61275

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1978 0.45 ac lot Est $218k · 31% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New listing in Port Byron Illinois is looking for a new owner. 3 bedroom Ranch with laundry on the 1st level. 2 car attached garage and large level yard. Basement can be finished to your liking for additional living space.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#394 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Riverdale CUSD 100 (rural): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #206 of 620 in IL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverdale Sr High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 312 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Rock Island County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rock Island County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $142,225 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,728
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9628 234th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	96
9406 239th St N	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,145 (-15%)	8mo	$185,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,191
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,242
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61275

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-03
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed
6. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed
7. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed
8. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed
9. 2025-12-10
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-10
    historical
11. 2025-12-10
    historical
12. 2025-12-09
    listed $149,900
13. 2025-12-09
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,480/yr (+$123/mo · 334.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverdale CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1733930
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $66,006
• Composite: 29.35/100
• National rank: #6536
• State rank: #206 of 620 in IL

Livability — Port Byron

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #394
• US rank: #8267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,226

Population outlook (Rock Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 140,982 people
• By 2030: 137,705 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 130,512 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 123,841 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 109,851 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 90,922 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% English 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rock Island

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.6) · D 53.9% · R 44.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.6 2020: D+12.1 2016: D+8.4 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.08%
• Current HPI: 174.2667
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-26.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $149,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $442 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.