2910 N Osprey Cove Pt · Black Diamond, FL 34461

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1995 0.38 ac lot Est $320k · at est. $230/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic buy at Black Diamond. Rarely used, this village home can be purchased fully furnished.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Renovated bathrooms
• Large porch

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SERENE CUL-DE-SAC
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• LARGE PORCH
• GOLF COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $691 (approx. $230.33/month); HOA includes cable TV; Community is gated (Black Diamond Ranch)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Concrete parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story; Stucco exterior; Entry facing information not provided
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof; Block and slab foundation; Built in 2013
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Corner lot; Paved road access; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-370/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.0% in Black Diamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#313 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,731/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 41% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $320k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,130 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,229
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3680 W Treyburn Path	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+0%)	2mo	$309,000	$199	97
2888 N Osprey Ridge Pt	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+1%)	4mo	$299,000	$192	93
2902 N Osprey Cove Pt	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,547 (0%)	11mo	$282,200	$182	90
3803 W Crystal Downs Path	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+4%)	20mo	$335,000	$207	64
3381 N Bent Tree Pt	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-3%)	11mo	$429,000	$285	59
3389 N Bent Tree Pt	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+6%)	16mo	$384,000	$234	50
3292 W Wildwood Bay Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+9%)	19mo	$280,000	$166	41
4331 W Hacienda Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+13%)	20mo	$724,900	$413	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-53,775
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-49,244
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34461

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,772/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,770

Max offer price $314,450

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3141 N Barton Creek Cir Lecanto, FL	3.0	2.0	1806	$3,000	$1.66	21d	1	0.33mi
12 Montana St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,700	$1.56	21d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $319,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $319,900 Active
17. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus $170,000
18. 2005-06-09
    soldstatus $206,000
19. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $206,000 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Fantastic buy at Black Diamond. Rarely used, this village home can be purchased fully furnished.

20. 2003-03-27
    listed $215,000 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Fantastic buy at Black Diamond. Rarely used, this village home can be purchased fully furnished.

21. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus $16,428

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,772 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,655 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 49.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$1,772
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Black Diamond

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #5318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Diamond, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,377
• Household income: $63,418
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.48%
• Current HPI: 258.0866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1847.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $319,900 RACC
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-03 Sold (MLS) $206,000 RACC
• 2003-03-27 Listed $215,000 RACC
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,428 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,772 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.