5863 River Walk Cir · Newburgh, IN 47630

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 4,356 sqft lot Est $243k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADORABLE home with lots of updates!! This home has amazing curb appeal and ready for its new owners. Fresh paint throughout most of the home and new carpet and vinyl flooring in kitchen and bathroom. Comes fully equipped with all the kitchen appliances you need to whip up that meal you have been craving! The room upstairs could be used as a master bedroom or bonus room, 2 baths, one located upstairs. You fill find the other 2 bedrooms on the mail level.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Patio for grilling
• Convenient location

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE LOFT AREA
• VINYL PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO FOR GRILLING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Workshop on property
• HOA & community: Located in The Village At Riverwalk subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (site-built); One story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as site-built home
• Exterior features: Deck; Privacy vinyl fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Master suite on main level; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Castle South Middle School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #48 of 330 statewide, top 15%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,284 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9888 Monte Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,361 (+4%)	1mo	$296,000	$217	83
5902 Lisa Ln	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,356 (+4%)	2mo	$224,900	$166	80
9998 Monte Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,361 (+4%)	2mo	$298,000	$219	80
9845 Monte Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,361 (+4%)	0mo	$297,000	$218	80
5819 Riverwalk Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (+2%)	12mo	$155,000	$117	79
5815 River Walk Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,341 (+3%)	12mo	$213,900	$160	78
9860 Pollack Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+8%)	4mo	$270,000	$192	71
9800 Monte Way	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+8%)	12mo	$285,000	$203	63
10555 Willow Creek Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (+6%)	1mo	$245,000	$177	58
5555 Burdette Ln	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,217 (-7%)	12mo	$220,000	$181	56
5988 Willow Brook Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+10%)	9mo	$266,000	$186	46
10555 Brookside Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,491 (+14%)	10mo	$265,000	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,880
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $38,513
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5879 Riverwalk Cir Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,600	$1.42	21d	1	0.04mi
9895 Cove Point Ct Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	21d	1	0.05mi
6166 River Bluff Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	44d	1	0.46mi
402 W Jennings St Newburgh, IN	3.0	1.5	1508	$2,575	$1.71	44d	1	1.18mi
10686 Fall Creek Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,950	$1.36	14d	1	1.20mi
4920 Penrose Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	44d	1	1.24mi
4799 Imperial Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,975	$1.44	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $215,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 150.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+112.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $215,000 IRMLS
• 2022-11-23 Sold (MLS) $162,000 IRMLS
• 2022-11-03 Delisted — IRMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $162,000 IRMLS
• 2017-06-06 Sold (MLS) $115,000 IRMLS
• 2017-03-16 Listed $120,000 IRMLS
• 2010-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $457 · +54.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.