419 Wood River Rd · Millsap, TX 76066

$149,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A unique property on a beautiful treed lot. Just a min from the renowned Millsap high school, elementary school, and middle school. Fully fenced with 419 Wood River, but still very private. Commuting distance from Fort Worth and Weatherford. Fenced yard and gated. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms, open floor plan, and recently updated features. This is the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Fenced yard
• Private

Tags

• TREED LOT
• FULLY FENCED
• PRIVATE
• FENCED YARD
• GATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1 acre and is listed as subdivided; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No HOA / association

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway (no covered or carport spaces listed)
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic; Asphalt road access; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Property attached: Yes; Subdivision: Wood River Add; Horse permitted
• Construction: Siding exterior; Preowned
• Exterior features: Acreage lot with few trees; Located on a cul-de-sac; Metal fencing; Circular driveway; Septic; Asphalt access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($630/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.3% in Millsap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,044 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Millsap ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #147 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millsap El (math 48% / reading 48%, grade D, #971 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 531 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,606 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,947
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,873
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76066

• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,131/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 386-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $149,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,131 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,131
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millsap ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830870
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,988
• Composite: 44.21/100
• National rank: #2850
• State rank: #147 of 826 in TX

Livability — Millsap

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1044
• US rank: #18563

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,615

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% European 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.09%
• Current HPI: 140.3208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $149,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $149,999 NTREIS
• 2015-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,131 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.