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21419 Blue Tuna Dr
D- Composite 35.28
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +14.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +4.9/30.0
  • Schools +4.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.4/10.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.2/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$275,000

21419 Blue Tuna Dr · Cypress, TX 77433
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot 2-car garage $185/sqft · 14% below area Est $321k · 14% under $113/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Charming home located in the highly desirable master-planned community of Marvida! This one story features an open-concept layout that's ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen boasts an upgraded pantry enclosed by sliding barn doors, white shaker-style cabinetry, contemporary finishes, stainless steel appliances, and an island with breakfast bar seating, and it connects seamlessly to the dining and family rooms. The primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and includes a generous walk-in closet that conveniently accesses the utility room. Outdoors, enjoy a covered patio that overlooks the backyard.

Key facts

  • Upgraded pantry
  • Walk-in closet
  • Covered patio

Tags

UPGRADED PANTRYCOVERED PATIOWALK-IN CLOSETRESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (28.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (16.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $196k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.8% in Cypress — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2594 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $196,275 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.84%
Cap rate
3.39%
Cash-on-cash
-10.38%
DSCR
0.54
GRM
9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$321,121
List price
$275,000
Delta
-11.25%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
8234 Blue Shell Ln 0.24mi 3/2.0 1,535 (+3%) 0mo $314,990 $205 83
21642 Coral Mist Dr 0.27mi 3/2.0 1,548 (+4%) 2mo $298,668 $193 79
8118 Copper Meadows Ln 0.47mi 3/2.0 1,555 (+4%) 1mo $304,890 $196 70
8218 Blue Shell Ln 0.27mi 3/2.0 1,673 (+12%) 2mo $340,990 $204 65
8122 Copper Meadows Ln 0.47mi 3/2.0 1,366 (-8%) 1mo $302,490 $221 64
21819 Honey Scent Ln 0.50mi 3/2.0 1,601 (+8%) 1mo $299,255 $187 63
8147 Copper Meadows Ln 0.49mi 3/2.0 1,366 (-8%) 0mo $295,990 $217 63
21803 Honey Scent Ln 0.48mi 3/2.0 1,631 (+10%) 0mo $318,705 $195 62
21830 Honey Scent Ln 0.50mi 3/2.0 1,631 (+10%) 1mo $313,805 $192 60
21822 Black Tulip Ln 0.51mi 3/2.0 1,631 (+10%) 2mo $309,605 $190 58
21815 Coral Mist Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,675 (+13%) 2mo $309,138 $185 52
7806 Coco Verde Dr 0.73mi 3/2.0 1,679 (+13%) 2mo $329,000 $196 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-39.7%
Equity multiple
-0.21×
Total profit
$-93,337
Equity at exit
$41,003
10-year hold
IRR
-95.6%
Equity multiple
-1.08×
Total profit
$-160,398
Equity at exit
$23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
53 active · 35 under contract
Months of supply
5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$325,000 ($199/sqft)
Median days on market
60 d
This list price
4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+8.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

Home prices YoY
-28.5%
Rents YoY
-1.3%
Active inventory
2594
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,306 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,442
Tax from tax record
$818 /mo · $9,814/yr
Insurance
$115
HOA
$113
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$484
Net cashflow
$-666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149
Max offer price $196,275
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-510 -5% $-588 +0% $-666 +5% $-744 +10% $-822
Rent -10% $-848 -5% $-757 +0% $-666 +5% $-575 +10% $-484
Rate -1.0pp $-527 -0.5pp $-596 base $-666 +0.5pp $-737 +1.0pp $-810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$68,750
Closing costs
$8,250
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 28 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 3.0 1730 $2,475 $1.43 92d 1 0.55mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Unit 315 Cypress, TX 3.0 2.0 1382 $2,564 $1.86 16d 1 0.78mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX 3.0–5.0 2.0–3.5 1935 $2,199 $1.14 15d 34 0.78mi
21050 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1596 $2,596 $1.63 19d 1 0.79mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX 4.0 2.5 1804 $2,676 $1.48 16d 1 0.84mi
21010 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX 4.0 2.5 1804 $2,565 $1.42 19d 1 0.86mi
21006 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1596 $2,596 $1.63 19d 1 0.86mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX 4.0 2.5 1743 $2,390 $1.37 16d 1 0.91mi
20739 Dickinson Manor Ln Cypress, TX 3.0 2.0 1700 $1,675 $0.99 12d 1 0.97mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 954 $2,666 $2.79 1d 17 1.06mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1756 $2,600 $1.48 92d 1 1.07mi
20731 Desert Shadows Ln Cypress, TX 3.0 2.5 1822 $1,845 $1.01 31d 1 1.07mi
8357 Fry Rd Unit FCC Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1018 $1,775 $1.74 60d 1 1.09mi
8357 Fry Rd Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1018 $1,775 $1.74 48d 1 1.09mi
7322 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1620 $2,307 $1.42 19d 1 1.19mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX 3.0 2.0 1780 $2,650 $1.49 92d 1 1.19mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1018 $1,775 $1.74 73d 1 1.19mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1018 $1,775 $1.74 11d 1 1.19mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1018 $1,775 $1.74 92d 1 1.19mi
21014 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1643 $2,259 $1.37 16d 1 1.19mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Unit 219 Cypress, TX 2.0 2.0 1112 $1,713 $1.54 0d 1 1.20mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Unit 315 Cypress, TX 3.0 2.0 1438 $2,273 $1.58 0d 1 1.20mi
21027 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1643 $2,259 $1.37 19d 1 1.20mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1620 $2,307 $1.42 92d 1 1.22mi
9743 Avalon View Dr Cypress, TX 4.0 2.0 1830 $2,495 $1.36 42d 1 1.27mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX 3.0–4.0 2.5–3.5 1784 $2,450 $1.37 0d 36 1.29mi
9177 Fry Rd Cypress, TX 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 949 $2,341 $2.47 0d 28 1.36mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 996 $2,104 $2.11 0d 30 1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Association-managed pool available
HOA & community
Member of S-G II Owners AssociationAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: clubhouse, sport court, dog park, playground, park, poolCommunity features: community pool, curbs, gutters

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
Security
Owned security system
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFaces northBuilt in 2022Slab foundation
Construction
Brick constructionComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate fenced yardBack yard fenceSubdivision lot settingConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
Flooring
Plank flooringVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features
Breakfast barKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining room

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    remarks 699-char remark
  27. 2026-07-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $275,000 Active 1 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 96 DOM
  29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
  30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
  31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 93 DOM
  32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 92 DOM
  33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 91 DOM
  34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 90 DOM
  35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $285,000 Active 89 DOM
  36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
  37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
  38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
  39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 84 DOM
  40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM
  41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
  42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 78 DOM
  43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,000 Active 77 DOM
  44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 76 DOM
  45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 75 DOM
  46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
  47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
  48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
  49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
  50. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$9,814 · $818/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$9,814 · $818/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$27,670
− Mortgage interest
−$15,404
− Property taxes
−$9,814
− Insurance
−$1,375
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,214
− Management
−$2,214
− HOA
−$1,356
− Depreciation
−$8,000
Taxable loss
−$12,706
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,050
After-tax cash flow
$-4,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,440–$22,320 screening

This single-family home in Marvida is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good exterior, and good flooring. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value.
  • Both Replace ceiling fan with modern model — Modern ceiling fan improves aesthetics and energy efficiency.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Postma El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Rowe Middle F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Cypress Park H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
NCES district ID
4816110
Math proficiency
45% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$72,025
Composite
43.63/100
National rank
#2968
State rank
#161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
212,884
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
116,550
Household income
$143,934
Rent vs Own
18.5% rent · 81.5% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity
White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 16%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-6.8% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-06 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-06 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-06-05 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-07 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-01 Listed $295,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+94.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,814 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…