2357 Circle Dr · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1960 1.40 ac lot Est $376k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for a serene, unincorporated piece of land in a great location? This 1.4-acre partially wooded retreat is conveniently situated near all three schools and shopping options. The ranch-style home offers an excellent opportunity for a family to make it their own. Featuring four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this spacious ranch provides ample living space and room for growth, including an unfinished basement. Imagine the joy of gardening, playful afternoons, and peaceful relaxation in the expansive outdoor space that this property provides. Don’t miss the opportunity to transform this hidden gem into the haven of your dreams! This property is being sold as-is. Back on the ma

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($517/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Discovery Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #179 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 610 students, 9% FRL); Liberty High School (math 53% / reading 61%, grade C, #51 of 521 statewide, top 11%, 1,586 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,996 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2357 Circle Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,956 (0%)	1mo	$299,000	$153	100
558 Springhurst Pkwy	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,998 (+2%)	4mo	$375,000	$188	87
728 English Ivy	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,848 (-6%)	2mo	$324,900	$176	71
907 Daffodil Trl	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,225 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$157	67
256 Spring Borough Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (-7%)	10mo	$350,000	$192	66
408 Spring Trce	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,149 (+10%)	1mo	$359,900	$167	61
2340 Oak Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,836 (-6%)	4mo	$365,000	$199	59
211 Springbeach Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,050 (+5%)	5mo	$350,000	$171	59
203 Townshead Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-12%)	7mo	$499,900	$289	47
191 Noahs Mill Dr	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,746 (-11%)	3mo	$439,900	$252	45
114 Sommers Creek Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,214 (+13%)	11mo	$642,234	$290	45
0 Lot 570@streets of Caledonia	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (+9%)	8mo	$582,000	$272	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,250
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,487
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,872/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $128	+0% $43	+5% $-42	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-56	+0% $43	+5% $142	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $119	base $43	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	3.5	1966	$2,150	$1.09	4d	1	0.55mi
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	4d	1	0.56mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	25d	1	0.61mi
106 Sommerset Ct Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	2059	$2,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.76mi
1007 Carpathian Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1524	$2,191	$1.44	9d	1	1.00mi
608 Highland Prairie Dr O Fallon, MO	4.0	2.5	2480	$2,750	$1.11	12d	1	1.01mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,223	$2.22	0d	14	1.05mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,666	$1.82	0d	1	1.06mi
710 Alban Aly Unit O O'Fallon, MO	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,400	$1.57	3d	1	1.11mi
102 Ripple creek Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1599	$2,600	$1.63	3d	4	1.16mi
1000 Sullivans Way Unit 118 Lake St Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,375	$1.30	9d	1	1.43mi
1000 Sullivans Way Unit 150 Lake St Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2024	$2,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.43mi
1000 Sullivans Way Unit 134 Lake St Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	45d	1	1.43mi
307 Willow Manor Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1617	$3,250	$2.01	0d	21	1.45mi
2815 Preston Woods Trl Lake Saint Louis, MO	4.0	3.5	2200	$2,801	$1.27	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Active
3. 2026-04-19
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-11
   listed $299,000 Active
6. 2026-04-04
   historical $299,000
7. 2026-04-01
   price $299,000
8. 2025-10-20
   price $325,000
9. 2025-10-08
   price $343,000
10. 2025-09-30
    listed $350,000 Active
11. 2025-09-09
    historical
12. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus $300,000
13. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus
14. 2011-05-09
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,872 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,872
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+228.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $299,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Coming Soon $299,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $299,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $325,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $343,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed $350,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,872 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.