6378 Monmouth Dr · Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$389,700

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 0.50 ac lot Est $522k · 25% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in a quiet, tucked-away section of Harding Lakes, this waterfront ranch offers one-floor living with a rare multi-generational layout. The setting is calm, private, and backed by open water views that immediately change the pace of the day. The home is one of the larger models in the community and was thoughtfully updated in 2019. Inside, the layout is separated by a den with added bar, making it ideal for extended family, guests, or flexible work-from-home needs while still feeling connected. Six bedrooms (one currently used as a home office) and two full baths provide options without wasted space. Granite countertops, laminate flooring, and updated finishes keep the interior clean and current. Dual-zone HVAC and newer mechanicals support comfort and efficiency year-round. Outside, the water becomes part of everyday life—quiet mornings, reflective evenings, and unobstructed views that are hard to replicate in Harding Lakes. Dual driveways allow for easy parking and daily convenience. Waterfront. Ranch living. Multi-generational flexibility. Homes like this don’t come around often—especially in this location. Ask about our preferred lender’s 1% mortgage rate buydown to help lower your first-year payment and boost affordability. (Program availability/terms subject to lender approval and buyer qualifications; not a commitment to lend. )

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L. Hess Educational Complex (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #990 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL); William Davies Middle School (math 10% / reading 41%, grade F, #359 of 431 statewide, top 84%, 930 students, 51% FRL); Oakcrest High School (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #342 of 399 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,103/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1003% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $390k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,276 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $522,418
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6378 Monmouth Dr	0.00mi	6/2.0	2,224 (0%)	1mo	$387,350	$174	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $190,470
• Equity at exit: $351,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $578,326
• Equity at exit: $757,101

Cash invested: $109,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,044
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,065/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,538

Max offer price $329,012

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-233	+0% $-344	+5% $-454	+10% $-564
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-466	+0% $-344	+5% $-221	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-244	base $-344	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,425
• Closing costs: $11,691
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

   Set in a quiet, tucked-away section of Harding Lakes, this waterfront ranch offers one-floor living with a rare multi-generational layout. The setting is calm, private, and backed by open water views that immediately change the pace of the day. The home is one of the larger models in the community and was thoughtfully updated in 2019. Inside, the layout is separated by a den with added bar, making it ideal for extended family, guests, or flexible work-from-home needs while still feeling connected. Six bedrooms (one currently used as a home office) and two full baths provide options without wasted space. Granite countertops, laminate flooring, and updated finishes keep the interior clean and current. Dual-zone HVAC and newer mechanicals support comfort and efficiency year-round. Outside, the water becomes part of everyday life—quiet mornings, reflective evenings, and unobstructed views that are hard to replicate in Harding Lakes. Dual driveways allow for easy parking and daily convenience. Waterfront. Ranch living. Multi-generational flexibility. Homes like this don’t come around often—especially in this location. Ask about our preferred lender’s 1% mortgage rate buydown to help lower your first-year payment and boost affordability. (Program availability/terms subject to lender approval and buyer qualifications; not a commitment to lend. )

2. 2026-02-20
   historical Under Contract 1384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

   Set in a quiet, tucked-away section of Harding Lakes, this waterfront ranch offers one-floor living with a rare multi-generational layout. The setting is calm, private, and backed by open water views that immediately change the pace of the day. The home is one of the larger models in the community and was thoughtfully updated in 2019. Inside, the layout is separated by a den with added bar, making it ideal for extended family, guests, or flexible work-from-home needs while still feeling connected. Six bedrooms (one currently used as a home office) and two full baths provide options without wasted space. Granite countertops, laminate flooring, and updated finishes keep the interior clean and current. Dual-zone HVAC and newer mechanicals support comfort and efficiency year-round. Outside, the water becomes part of everyday life—quiet mornings, reflective evenings, and unobstructed views that are hard to replicate in Harding Lakes. Dual driveways allow for easy parking and daily convenience. Waterfront. Ranch living. Multi-generational flexibility. Homes like this don’t come around often—especially in this location. Ask about our preferred lender’s 1% mortgage rate buydown to help lower your first-year payment and boost affordability. (Program availability/terms subject to lender approval and buyer qualifications; not a commitment to lend. )

3. 2026-02-07
   listed $389,700 Active
4. 2026-02-06
   historical $389,700

   Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

   Set in a quiet, tucked-away section of Harding Lakes, this waterfront ranch offers one-floor living with a rare multi-generational layout. The setting is calm, private, and backed by open water views that immediately change the pace of the day. The home is one of the larger models in the community and was thoughtfully updated in 2019. Inside, the layout is separated by a den with added bar, making it ideal for extended family, guests, or flexible work-from-home needs while still feeling connected. Six bedrooms (one currently used as a home office) and two full baths provide options without wasted space. Granite countertops, laminate flooring, and updated finishes keep the interior clean and current. Dual-zone HVAC and newer mechanicals support comfort and efficiency year-round. Outside, the water becomes part of everyday life—quiet mornings, reflective evenings, and unobstructed views that are hard to replicate in Harding Lakes. Dual driveways allow for easy parking and daily convenience. Waterfront. Ranch living. Multi-generational flexibility. Homes like this don’t come around often—especially in this location. Ask about our preferred lender’s 1% mortgage rate buydown to help lower your first-year payment and boost affordability. (Program availability/terms subject to lender approval and buyer qualifications; not a commitment to lend. )

5. 2026-02-06
   listed $389,700 Active 1384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

   Set in a quiet, tucked-away section of Harding Lakes, this waterfront ranch offers one-floor living with a rare multi-generational layout. The setting is calm, private, and backed by open water views that immediately change the pace of the day. The home is one of the larger models in the community and was thoughtfully updated in 2019. Inside, the layout is separated by a den with added bar, making it ideal for extended family, guests, or flexible work-from-home needs while still feeling connected. Six bedrooms (one currently used as a home office) and two full baths provide options without wasted space. Granite countertops, laminate flooring, and updated finishes keep the interior clean and current. Dual-zone HVAC and newer mechanicals support comfort and efficiency year-round. Outside, the water becomes part of everyday life—quiet mornings, reflective evenings, and unobstructed views that are hard to replicate in Harding Lakes. Dual driveways allow for easy parking and daily convenience. Waterfront. Ranch living. Multi-generational flexibility. Homes like this don’t come around often—especially in this location. Ask about our preferred lender’s 1% mortgage rate buydown to help lower your first-year payment and boost affordability. (Program availability/terms subject to lender approval and buyer qualifications; not a commitment to lend. )

6. 2019-07-17
   soldstatus $193,500
7. 2019-06-12
   soldstatus $193,500 Sold 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Wonderfully remodeled Waterfront Ranch in Hamilton Twp. Effectively 6 bedrooms. Your like new home features an all new kitchen with new cabinets, new granite countertops, laminate floors and new appliances. New baths with new fixtures. New floor coverings and paint thru out. Also New dual zone HVAC and HWH Will not last!

8. 2019-05-30
   status Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Wonderfully remodeled Waterfront Ranch in Hamilton Twp. Effectively 6 bedrooms. Your like new home features an all new kitchen with new cabinets, new granite countertops, laminate floors and new appliances. New baths with new fixtures. New floor coverings and paint thru out. Also New dual zone HVAC and HWH Will not last!

9. 2019-04-22
   historical Under Contract 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Wonderfully remodeled Waterfront Ranch in Hamilton Twp. Effectively 6 bedrooms. Your like new home features an all new kitchen with new cabinets, new granite countertops, laminate floors and new appliances. New baths with new fixtures. New floor coverings and paint thru out. Also New dual zone HVAC and HWH Will not last!

10. 2019-03-21
    listed $189,900 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Wonderfully remodeled Waterfront Ranch in Hamilton Twp. Effectively 6 bedrooms. Your like new home features an all new kitchen with new cabinets, new granite countertops, laminate floors and new appliances. New baths with new fixtures. New floor coverings and paint thru out. Also New dual zone HVAC and HWH Will not last!

11. 1994-08-29
    soldstatus $93,500
12. 1989-01-04
    soldstatus $45,000
13. 1987-10-09
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,065 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,384 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,319/yr (+$110/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,829
• − Property taxes: −$7,065
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,979
• − Management: −$2,979
• − Depreciation: −$11,337
• Taxable loss: −$10,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Estell Manor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #14535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 1,269
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1523.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $389,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $389,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $389,700 SJSRMLS
• 2019-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) $193,500 SJSRMLS
• 2019-05-30 Relisted — SJSRMLS
• 2019-04-22 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2019-03-21 Listed $189,900 SJSRMLS
• 1994-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1989-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1987-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,065 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.