233 Fairview Cir · Montevallo, AL 35115

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2003 7,840 sqft lot $122/sqft · 19% below area Est $234k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Full brick one level with front entry garage parking. Hardwood floors, private master suite, spacious kitchen with eating area and large back private patio and fenced yard. Located near culdesac for limited traffic. Move in ready for first time homebuyer or investor looking for rental.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Large back patio
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FRONT ENTRY GARAGE
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE BACK PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• NEAR CULDESAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Montevallo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montevallo Elementary School (math 29% / reading 49%, grade F, #257 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 749 students, 77% FRL); Montevallo Middle School (math 5% / reading 43%, grade F, #168 of 257 statewide, top 66%, 369 students, 78% FRL); Montevallo High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 506 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,890 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,639
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -19.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Fairview Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-1%)	0mo	$215,000	$140	95
25 Pleasant	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,680 (+9%)	2mo	$32,000	$19	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,652
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-44,006
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35115

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $166,753

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-72	+0% $-126	+5% $-179	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-183	+0% $-126	+5% $-69	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-78	base $-126	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $189,000 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Full brick one level with front entry garage parking. Hardwood floors, private master suite, spacious kitchen with eating area and large back private patio and fenced yard. Located near culdesac for limited traffic. Move in ready for first time homebuyer or investor looking for rental.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $209,000 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Full brick one level with front entry garage parking. Hardwood floors, private master suite, spacious kitchen with eating area and large back private patio and fenced yard. Located near culdesac for limited traffic. Move in ready for first time homebuyer or investor looking for rental.

3. 2026-03-08
   listed $219,000 Active 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Full brick one level with front entry garage parking. Hardwood floors, private master suite, spacious kitchen with eating area and large back private patio and fenced yard. Located near culdesac for limited traffic. Move in ready for first time homebuyer or investor looking for rental.

4. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $225,000 Sold 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home is move in ready. New is the word for this home. New: Hot water tank, flooring throughout, light fixtures throughout, paint, range, dishwasher. .. and the list goes on. Being in one of Montevallo's most desired neighborhoods this house will not last long!

5. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $225,000

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home is move in ready. New is the word for this home. New: Hot water tank, flooring throughout, light fixtures throughout, paint, range, dishwasher. .. and the list goes on. Being in one of Montevallo's most desired neighborhoods this house will not last long!

6. 2021-09-02
   historical 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home is move in ready. New is the word for this home. New: Hot water tank, flooring throughout, light fixtures throughout, paint, range, dishwasher. .. and the list goes on. Being in one of Montevallo's most desired neighborhoods this house will not last long!

7. 2021-08-27
   listed $215,000 Active 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home is move in ready. New is the word for this home. New: Hot water tank, flooring throughout, light fixtures throughout, paint, range, dishwasher. .. and the list goes on. Being in one of Montevallo's most desired neighborhoods this house will not last long!

8. 2008-10-24
   soldstatus $136,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montevallo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montevallo, AL
• Population (ZIP): 16,911

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.55%
• Current HPI: 207.2205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+38.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $189,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $209,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $219,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-09-02 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-08-27 Listed $215,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2008-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $136,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.