415 Bradford · Headland, AL 36345

$149,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2008 0.48 ac lot $67/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and beautifully updated with fresh neutral paint and brand-new flooring throughout! The kitchen shines with modern white cabinetry, new countertops, and stainless-steel appliances—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major upgrades include a new HVAC system and hot water heater, ensuring efficiency and reliability for years to come. Conveniently situated on a corner lot, this home is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Headland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#101 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #55 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,354
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -52.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,880
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $35,412
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36345

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $149,900 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Move-in ready and beautifully updated with fresh neutral paint and brand-new flooring throughout! The kitchen shines with modern white cabinetry, new countertops, and stainless-steel appliances—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Major upgrades include a new HVAC system and hot water heater, ensuring efficiency and reliability for years to come. Conveniently situated on a corner lot, this home is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner.

17. 2026-03-05
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $149,900 Active
19. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus $100,000
20. 2008-09-10
    soldstatus $9,447,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$648
• After-tax cash flow: $4,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 0101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,502
• Composite: 27.78/100
• National rank: #6894
• State rank: #55 of 129 in AL

Livability — Headland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #11540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,838
• Population (ZIP): 8,838

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,109 people
• By 2030: 16,928 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 16,376 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 15,778 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 14,491 · -15.3%
• By 2100: 12,673 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 16% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.3% · R 75.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+43.0 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+29.4 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.45%
• Current HPI: 213.0749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $149,900 SAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — SAMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $149,900 SAMLS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $9,447,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $165 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.