621 E Lockeford St #43 · Lodi, CA 95240

$29,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1962 Good condition $60/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready, this 1962 Universal single-wide mobile home is located in the Shady Acres Mobile Home Park. This 1 bedroom, 1-bath home has been recently updated and offers a comfortable and functional layout. The interior features a clean and refreshed living space with recent improvements throughout, creating an inviting atmosphere. Ideal for low-maintenance living, this home presents a great opportunity in an established community. Enjoy affordable space rent of $795 per month.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1962
• Listed 78 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$61,822) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,153 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.11%
• DSCR: 6.12
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,822
• List price: $29,950
• Delta: -51.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 E Lockeford St #3	0.00mi	1/1.0	500 (0%)	22mo	$26,000	$52	81
621 E Lockeford St	0.00mi	1/1.0	550 (+10%)	20mo	$55,000	$100	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $45,227
• Equity at exit: $4,466

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.01×
• Total profit: $100,704
• Equity at exit: $2,590

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $815	+0% $804	+5% $794	+10% $784
Rent	-10% $703	-5% $754	+0% $804	+5% $855	+10% $906
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $812	base $804	+0.5pp $797	+1.0pp $789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
417 Locust St Unit 3 Lodi, CA	—	1.0	499	$1,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.29mi
537 E Pine St Unit 4 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	350	$895	$2.56	4d	1	0.32mi
517 E Pine St #2 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,195	$2.39	4d	1	0.35mi
515 E Walnut St Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	20d	1	0.49mi
629 N Sacramento St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	44d	1	0.69mi
403 N School St Unit 7 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,100	$2.10	44d	1	0.74mi
404 W Walnut St Unit B, Lodi, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,300	$3.25	12d	1	1.11mi
404 W Walnut St Unit A, Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,495	$2.49	44d	1	1.11mi
619 S Sacramento St Unit 619 Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,800	$2.77	44d	1	1.15mi
735 S Sacramento St Apt 3 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	475	$895	$1.88	4d	1	1.23mi
200 E Vine St Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,195	$1.91	44d	1	1.24mi
310 S Orange Ave Lodi, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,350	$1.99	2d	6	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $29,950 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,950 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,950 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,950 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,950 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,950 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,950 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,950 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,950 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,950 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,950 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,950 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,950 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,950 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $9,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,342
• After-tax cash flow: $7,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1962 Universal single-wide mobile home is move-in ready with recent updates and a good condition score. It offers a comfortable and functional layout with a great opportunity in an established community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B