7008 San Bartolo St #27 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1973 $157/sqft · 36% below area Est $381k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as can be. Quiet location in the park. With nice sun room and back patio. Priced to sell-seller moving out of state. Walk to shopping, Carlsbad beach and bus lines. Park has alot to offer for fun and pleasure. .. .

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• All new windows
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• ALL NEW WINDOWS
• FRUIT TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in the Lakeshore Gardens community (Carlsbad West subdivision)
• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Billiard room; Meeting room; Barbecue facilities; RV parking; Recreation facilities; Spa/Hot tub; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Water connected; Sprinklers (irrigation)
• Home design: Manufactured home (updated/remodeled); Single-story
• Construction: Metal siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Barbecue; Deck; Awning(s); Covered porch; Full fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Gas oven; Gas range / gas cooktop; Range hood; Warming drawer; Ice maker; Vented exhaust fan; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Sauna; Ceiling fans; Smoke detector(s); Low-flow water fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,088/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $245k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.51%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,537
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -35.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	91
7203 San Luis St #166	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,536 (-2%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	85
7224 San Benito St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	82
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+6%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	82
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-6%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	80
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	80
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	78
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	77
7313 San Luis St #236	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-1%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	75
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+14%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	63
7318 San Luis St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	62
7311 San Luis St #237	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-13%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $215,586
• Equity at exit: $93,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.51×
• Total profit: $515,053
• Equity at exit: $131,882

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,278
• Net cashflow: $3,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	43d	1	0.14mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	43d	1	0.47mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.65mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.72mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	16d	1	0.76mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	43d	1	0.86mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	43d	1	0.98mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	1.15mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	1.18mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	1d	7	1.27mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	1d	1	1.43mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $245,000 Active 700-char remark
16. 2012-11-14
    soldstatus $53,000 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Cute as can be. Quiet location in the park. With nice sun room and back patio. Priced to sell-seller moving out of state. Walk to shopping, Carlsbad beach and bus lines. Park has alot to offer for fun and pleasure. .. .

17. 2012-10-29
    price $59,000
18. 2012-09-24
    listed $59,000 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Cute as can be. Quiet location in the park. With nice sun room and back patio. Priced to sell-seller moving out of state. Walk to shopping, Carlsbad beach and bus lines. Park has alot to offer for fun and pleasure. .. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,845
• − Management: −$5,845
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $35,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,548
• After-tax cash flow: $28,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+315.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $245,000 SDMLS
• 2012-11-14 Sold (MLS) $53,000 CRMLS
• 2012-10-29 Price Changed $59,000 SDMLS
• 2012-09-24 Listed $59,000 CRMLS