2950 21st St · San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,898,000

8 bd · 0.0 ba · 5,350 sqft · MultiFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 2,748 sqft lot Est $2488k · 24% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

2950 21st Street, a 5,350-square-foot, 4-unit mixed-use property located in the highly sought-after Inner Mission neighborhood of San Francisco. Built in 1900, this historic building offers a mix of three residential apartments and one commercial space, featuring exceptionally large floor plans that average 1,338 square feet. The residential unit mix consists of two four-bedroom/two-bathroom units and one two-bedroom/two-bathroom unit, alongside a 1,350-square-foot commercial space. With expansive residential layouts, the property presents a clear opportunity for owner-occupancy, particularly within the 1,818-square-foot primary four-bedroom unit and the accompanying commercial space. The I

Key facts

• Commercial space
• Historic building
• Mixed-use property

Tags

• MIXED-USE PROPERTY
• HISTORIC BUILDING
• RESIDENTIAL APARTMENTS
• COMMERCIAL SPACE
• EXPANSIVE RESIDENTIAL LAYOUTS
• PRIMARY FOUR-BEDROOM UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($96k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.90M).
• Recommended offer: $1.87M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $26,726/mo this rent would consume 203% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $531k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.87M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,869,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,487,750
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3144-3148 22nd St	0.25mi	9/3.0 (+1)	5,052 (-6%)	2mo	$1,810,000	$358	61
3579 19th St	0.54mi	8/4.0	5,216 (-2%)	2mo	$2,605,000	$499	53
834-840 York St	0.26mi	8/4.0	4,800 (-10%)	4mo	$2,250,000	$469	51
813-817 Kansas St	0.61mi	9/6.0 (+1)	4,945 (-8%)	16mo	$1,769,000	$358	26
1123-1127 Guerrero St	0.58mi	7/6.0 (-1)	4,728 (-12%)	14mo	$2,200,000	$465	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $343,413
• Equity at exit: $282,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $1,599,359
• Equity at exit: $164,104

Cash invested: $531,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94110

• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 23.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,953
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,372 /mo · $28,470/yr
• Insurance: −$791
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,612
• Net cashflow: $7,997

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,603

Max offer price $1,898,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,309	-5% $8,653	+0% $7,997	+5% $7,341	+10% $6,685
Rent	-10% $5,886	-5% $6,941	+0% $7,997	+5% $9,053	+10% $10,108
Rate	-1.0pp $8,953	-0.5pp $8,480	base $7,997	+0.5pp $7,505	+1.0pp $7,005

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	—	$26,728
Total (4 units)			$26,726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $474,500
• Closing costs: $56,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $1,898,000 Active
3. 2023-06-22
   historical $4,700
4. 2023-05-01
   historical
5. 2022-06-05
   historical
6. 2022-06-03
   listed $2,600,000 Active
7. 2022-04-02
   listed $2,600,000 Active
8. 2022-02-03
   price $4,700
9. 2018-01-26
   soldstatus $2,960,000 Closed
10. 2018-01-03
    historical
11. 2017-10-20
    listed $2,995,000 Active
12. 2015-07-28
    historical
13. 2015-04-15
    listed $3,050,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $320,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,318
• − Property taxes: −$28,470
• − Insurance: −$9,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,657
• − Management: −$25,657
• − Depreciation: −$55,215
• Taxable income: $69,906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,777
• After-tax cash flow: $79,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,865
• Household income: $158,351
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2732.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1385.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-37.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $1,898,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-06-22 Rental Removed $4,700 APPFOLIO
• 2023-05-01 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2022-06-05 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $2,600,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-04-02 Listed $2,600,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $4,700 RENT.
• 2018-01-26 Sold (MLS) $2,960,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2018-01-03 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2017-10-20 Listed $2,995,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2015-07-28 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2015-04-15 Listed $3,050,000 San Francisco MLS