1264 Camellia Dr · Beecher, MI 48458

$44,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1960 6,970 sqft lot $49/sqft · 18% above area Est $38k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect starter brick ranch with 3 bedrooms and one and a half baths. Easy access to schools and I-475. Fenced treed yard with a covered front porch. Oversized attached one car garage.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fenced treed yard
• Easy access to i-475

Tags

• FENCED TREED YARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO I-475

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#603 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.56%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,944
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: 18.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6069 Natchez Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	2mo	$65,000	$72	85
6137 Natchez Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	864 (-5%)	2mo	$65,000	$75	77
1297 W Kurtz Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	852 (-7%)	6mo	$38,000	$45	73
1199 Peachtree Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,000 (+10%)	10mo	$54,000	$54	68
1061 Harvard Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	960 (+5%)	2mo	$57,500	$60	62
5395 Stiffler Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	912 (0%)	6mo	$10,000	$11	60
5428 Farmhill Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	923 (+1%)	9mo	$45,000	$49	56
1148 N Cornell Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-1%)	10mo	$24,250	$27	55
1395 W Yale Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,002 (+10%)	3mo	$8,800	$9	53
1416 W Yale St	0.56mi	3/1.0	800 (-12%)	10mo	$35,900	$45	43
1059 Morris Hills Pkwy	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+11%)	10mo	$110,000	$109	40
1020 E Princeton Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	782 (-14%)	6mo	$27,500	$35	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $27,817
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $69,478
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $408

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6113 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$990	$0.90	44d	1	0.22mi
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	13d	1	0.36mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.39mi
6203 Hilton Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	44d	1	0.79mi
2216 Obrien Rd Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	13d	1	0.87mi
7028 Rosewood Dr Mt Morris, MI	2.0	1.0	967	$1,020	$1.05	13d	1	0.94mi
246 E York Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	13d	1	1.27mi
514 W Alma Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$925	$1.03	13d	1	1.34mi
5280 Cedar Shores Ct Flint, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$1,148	$1.00	13d	6	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Perfect starter brick ranch with 3 bedrooms and one and a half baths. Easy access to schools and I-475. Fenced treed yard with a covered front porch. Oversized attached one car garage.

2. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Perfect starter brick ranch with 3 bedrooms and one and a half baths. Easy access to schools and I-475. Fenced treed yard with a covered front porch. Oversized attached one car garage.

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $44,900 Active 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Perfect starter brick ranch with 3 bedrooms and one and a half baths. Easy access to schools and I-475. Fenced treed yard with a covered front porch. Oversized attached one car garage.

4. 2026-04-21
   listed $44,900 Active 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Perfect starter brick ranch with 3 bedrooms and one and a half baths. Easy access to schools and I-475. Fenced treed yard with a covered front porch. Oversized attached one car garage.

5. 2006-08-02
   soldstatus $52,000
6. 1993-03-02
   historical
7. 1993-01-15
   soldstatus $33,000
8. 1993-01-15
   soldstatus $33,000
9. 1992-01-15
   listed $33,000
10. 1992-01-15
    listed $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $5,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Beecher

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #19782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+36.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1993-01-15 Sold (MLS) $33,000 REALCOMP
• 1993-01-15 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1992-01-15 Listed $33,000 REALCOMP
• 1992-01-15 Listed $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.