3633 Lazy Lake Dr S #3 · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1983 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed, 2 bath mobile home with tons of potential! This home needs some TLC but is priced accordingly for a quick sale. Convenient Lakeland location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Close to dining
• Lakeland location
• Close to shopping

Tags

• LAKELAND LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a development; Monthly condo/association fees listed as $0
• Financial info: Lease restrictions: none
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed; Max pet weight allowance listed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; One level; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Living area reported as 936 (owner) / building area total 936
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.90%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $5,598
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $24,414
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,791/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $380	+0% $355	+5% $330	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $304	+0% $355	+5% $406	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $378	base $355	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	24d	1	0.85mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	15d	1	0.86mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.86mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	3d	1	1.21mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	24d	1	1.27mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	24d	1	1.31mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	24d	1	1.32mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	15d	1	1.38mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $90,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $92,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $94,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $99,999 Active
17. 2008-12-22
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 2003-06-06
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 1999-09-24
    soldstatus $39,900
20. 1998-05-22
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,791 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,791 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,791
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$728
• After-tax cash flow: $3,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $99,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 1998-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,791 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.