11609 Nys Rte 3 · Henderson, NY 13605

$31,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come and join this friendly seasonal waterfront community at Willows on the Lake. And your dog is welcome too! Own this Cree model trailer, situated just off the waterfront, located currently on Lot 26 of the park. This model, offered by a motivated seller, is spotless; it sports a 2024 warranteed roof with an ice shield & architectural shingles, full sized appliances, central air, small storage shed, and a spacious covered porch. Furniture is negotiable. Currently a sleeper sofa adds a place for your guests to sleep. Park amenities include clubhouse access, dockage, laundry facilities, trash removal, free wi-fi plus public water and sewage. Owners are responsible for lawn care. If y

Key facts

• Laundry facilities
• Clubhouse access
• 2024 warranteed roof

Tags

• 2024 WARRANTEED ROOF
• CENTRAL AIR
• SPACIOUS COVERED PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE ACCESS
• DOCKAGE
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $3,400 per year
• HOA & community: Association fee billed annually

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; 1 story; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Propane tank (leased); Beach access to Lake Ontario; Lake frontage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($893 rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,094 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Belleville-Henderson Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #386 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($221 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $30,943 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.12%
• DSCR: 3.90
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $48,257
• Equity at exit: $28,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.7%
• Equity multiple: 14.20×
• Total profit: $117,859
• Equity at exit: $61,975

Cash invested: $8,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$167
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $279

Max offer price $31,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $496	+0% $485	+5% $474	+10% $463
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $449	+0% $485	+5% $520	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $493	base $485	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,975
• Closing costs: $957
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $31,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $31,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $31,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $31,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $31,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $31,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $31,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $31,900 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $31,900 Active
17. 2025-10-15
    historical
18. 2025-09-03
    listed $34,900 Active
19. 2025-08-22
    historical
20. 2025-06-27
    price $39,900
21. 2025-04-10
    price $43,000
22. 2025-01-12
    price $45,000
23. 2024-10-01
    price $47,500
24. 2024-09-01
    price $49,500
25. 2024-08-26
    listed $51,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,787
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$857
• − Management: −$857
• − Depreciation: −$928
• Taxable income: $5,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $4,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a warranted roof and minimal maintenance needs. It offers a good starting point for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville-Henderson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,416
• Composite: 42.68/100
• National rank: #3175
• State rank: #386 of 590 in NY

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #22239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $31,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $34,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $39,900 CNYIS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $43,000 CNYIS
• 2025-01-12 Price Changed $45,000 CNYIS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $47,500 CNYIS
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $49,500 CNYIS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $51,900 CNYIS