11514 Heritage Wind Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $218k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side.

Key facts

• Huge island kitchen
• Secondary bedrooms
• Dining room

Tags

• HUGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $236,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,288

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Plan: ALDER); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.7% in Barrett — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Harrison Hope Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	2mo	$199,900	$155	96
454 Harrison Hope Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	6mo	$229,900	$178	93
11518 Prosperity Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	7mo	$224,900	$175	92
343 Crayfish Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	9mo	$199,900	$155	87
11527 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	7mo	$199,900	$155	86
430 Harrison Hope Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$214,900	$155	82
450 Harrison Hope Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	6mo	$234,900	$169	80
11502 Prosperity Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	9mo	$249,900	$180	77
11515 Prosperity Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	10mo	$219,900	$158	76
11503 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	5mo	$237,900	$171	75
11515 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	6mo	$234,900	$169	74
424 Zinn Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-6%)	8mo	$150,000	$123	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,638
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,417
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $221	+0% $151	+5% $82	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $75	+0% $151	+5% $228	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $202	base $151	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $199,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $236,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,900 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$348
• After-tax cash flow: $2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good layout and open design. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior is well-maintained. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint on the exterior and some window treatments to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and natural light

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and natural light ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B