1947 N Nelson St · Pampa, TX 79065

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great buy!!!!! Two living areas, metal roof, CA/HT, workshop, covered back porch, garage could be converted back, hard wood floors, and large kitchen/dining room. Kitchen cabinets were replaced at some time in the past it appears. Please show and sale!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Two water heaters
• Garage

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• HARDWOOD AND TILE FLOORS
• TWO WATER HEATERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($250/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 355 students, 62% FRL); Pampa J H (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 738 students, 67% FRL); Pampa H S (math 49% / reading 37%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,046 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,365 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,343
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,081
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79065

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,365/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $68	+0% $21	+5% $-26	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-41	+0% $21	+5% $83	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $63	base $21	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2900 Rosewood Ln Pampa, TX	4.0	1.5	1537	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.71mi
1404 Coronado Dr Pampa, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	1.05mi
828 N Nelson St Pampa, TX	4.0	2.5	1778	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    remarks 404-char remark
13. 2026-06-08
    listed $165,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,365 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,365 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,365
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pampa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834170
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,741
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #5986
• State rank: #482 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pampa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3885

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pampa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,569

Population outlook (Gray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,965 people
• By 2030: 26,105 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 28,752 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 31,859 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 39,812 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 43,284 · +73.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Gray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.2% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -71.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.2 2016: R+78.8 2012: R+75.2 2008: R+71.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.67%
• Current HPI: 128.8525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+565.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $165,000 PBOR
• 2017-09-15 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2017-08-03 Listed $24,800 AARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,365 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.