209 NW Gilliland Rd · Warrington, FL 32507

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1943 7,644 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Pensacola's Navy Point neighborhood, this 3 bedroom, 1 full bath cottage is ready for a new owner. Spacious living room and large eat-in kitchen are the heart of the home. French doors open to the back porch and fenced backyard. There is a detached 1 car garage and an additional storage shed. This popular neighborhood features a public boat launch and the scenic waterfront walking trails of Navy Point Park. Navy Point Park is one of Pensacola’s largest waterfront parks complete with a boat ramp, jogging path, playground, and access to Bayou Grande—perfect for boating, kayaking, and enjoying the outdoors. No HOA. Conveniently located just 4 miles from NAS Pensacola and

Key facts

• Jogging path
• Public boat launch
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH
• WATERFRONT WALKING TRAILS
• BOAT RAMP
• JOGGING PATH
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered/garage space); Front entrance parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Paved, county-maintained road access
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Off-grade foundation; Built as a one-level structure
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Back yard fencing; Yard building (outbuilding); Solar energy generation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric water heater (appliance noted)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring; Kitchen/Dining combo; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $853 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navy Point Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 430 students, 66% FRL); Jim C. Bailey Middle School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 1,159 students, 57% FRL); Pensacola High School (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,229 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $110k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.23%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 NW Gilliland Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,307 (+3%)	8mo	$255,000	$195	87
311 Flannan Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-1%)	2mo	$265,000	$211	80
316 W Sunset Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-6%)	3mo	$100,000	$83	78
219 Greve Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (-0%)	1mo	$167,000	$131	72
213 Bryant Rd	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,187 (-7%)	4mo	$165,000	$139	60
327 Gibbs Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (+8%)	5mo	$299,000	$216	60
648 Polk Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+12%)	4mo	$245,000	$171	58
1002 Polk Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-4%)	7mo	$247,500	$203	56
1261 Hawthorn Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (-1%)	3mo	$206,000	$163	56
1001 Decatur Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (+4%)	3mo	$141,000	$106	47
203 Baublits Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	7mo	$298,000	$213	47
306 SE Kalash Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-13%)	5mo	$249,900	$225	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $33,127
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $85,438
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $884	+0% $853	+5% $696	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $704	-5% $778	+0% $853	+5% $928	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $908	-0.5pp $881	base $853	+0.5pp $824	+1.0pp $795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	25d	1	0.11mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	25d	1	0.28mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	25d	1	0.31mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	25d	1	0.31mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	16d	1	0.31mi
1308 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	25d	1	0.31mi
1401 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,750	$1.13	16d	1	0.32mi
1405 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	25d	1	0.32mi
102 SE Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1029	$1,800	$1.75	25d	1	0.35mi
727 Bremen Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	0.82mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	25d	1	1.01mi
210 S 2nd St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	1.01mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	25d	1	1.06mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	25d	1	1.09mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	25d	1	1.20mi
570 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	25d	1	1.33mi
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	25d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $110,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$686/yr (+$57/mo · 302.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $8,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,143
• After-tax cash flow: $8,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $110,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $223,000 PARMLS
• 2009-12-29 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2009-11-02 Listed $75,000 PARMLS
• 1998-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $227 · +80.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.