2622 Ranch Ave · Midland, TX 79705

$297,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2021, where modern luxury meets everyday comfort. Thoughtfully designed with tile flooring throughout, elegant granite countertops, and high ceilings that enhance the warm, open feel. Enjoy easy living with a low-maintenance backyard and a beautifully xeriscaped front yard, perfect for relaxing and entertaining with minimal upkeep. This home is truly move-in ready and waiting for its new owner.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops
• High ceilings

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• XERISCAPED FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on 1 story
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Tile flooring; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-744/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: General Tommy Franks El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 825 students, 38% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,517 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,153
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,746
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $286,040

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $22	+0% $-62	+5% $-146	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-160	+0% $-62	+5% $36	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $13	base $-62	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.04mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.15mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.38mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.51mi
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	23d	1	0.62mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	23d	1	0.66mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.71mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.73mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.75mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	0.75mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	23d	1	0.75mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	0.78mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	23d	1	0.79mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	23d	1	0.79mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	0.80mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	0.84mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	0.85mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	0.88mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.91mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.91mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	23d	1	0.93mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	0.96mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	1.08mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.20mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	23d	1	1.21mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	1.23mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	1.29mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	23d	1	1.44mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $297,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $297,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $297,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $297,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $297,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
19. 2026-05-23
    listed $299,000 Active
20. 2026-02-23
    price $299,000
21. 2025-05-14
    soldstatus
22. 2025-04-15
    price $280,000
23. 2025-04-01
    price $285,000
24. 2023-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,435 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,401/yr (+$117/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,376
• − Management: −$2,376
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$5,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021-built home is move-in ready with modern amenities and a low-maintenance design, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $299,000 PBBOR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $299,000 PBBOR
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $280,000 PBBOR
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $285,000 PBBOR
• 2023-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,034 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.