9549 Crooked Hill Rd · Clayville, NY 13456

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1889 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Peaceful and serene sits this 3 bedroom, 1 bath bungalow on 1.2 park-like acres. This country kitchen comes complete with all appliances. You'll find a bedroom, living room, kitchen, bath and laundry on the first floor and 2 bedrooms on the second floor. There is a covered rear deck for relaxing and it overlooks a sprawling backyard for all sorts of activities or gardens. The pole barn/garage is a huge plus for parking several cars or using some for storage. There is also a shop set up inside for the handyman. Low taxes, a park-like yard, great schools and a low price, how can you beat this? Come and take a look today. Contingent upon owner finding suitable housing.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Pole barn
• Park-like yard

Tags

• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• COVERED REAR DECK
• SPRAWLING BACKYARD
• POLE BARN
• SHOP FOR HANDYMAN
• PARK-LIKE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner, irregular residential lot (~1.2 acres); City street frontage; Basement with dirt floor

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and workshop area; 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Architectural shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Stone foundation; Vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Eat-in / country kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#954 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sauquoit Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #314 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.39%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $95,952
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $271,545
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13456

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,415/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   status $149,900 Pending 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   remarks 674-char remark
8. 2026-06-05
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,415 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,415 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,415
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sauquoit Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600002
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,391
• Composite: 46.6/100
• National rank: #2418
• State rank: #314 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #18696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,103

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.32%
• Current HPI: 329.9104
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $149,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,415 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.