3211 Pearl St. # 503 St · Nacogdoches, TX 75965

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Townhouse · 69 Days on market

$150/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this 3-bedroom/2-bathroom townhome with a wood-burning fireplace & privacy fenced patio. This unit comes with a fridge, washer/dryer, and a stove. The layout features 2 bedrooms with a shared bathroom upstairs, while a 3rd bedroom and full bathroom are conveniently located downstairs. Unit is vacant & previously rented for $800 per month.

Key facts

• Washer dryer
• Stove
• Privacy fenced patio

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVACY FENCED PATIO
• FRIDGE
• WASHER DRYER
• STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.3% in Nacogdoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#252 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Nacogdoches ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #688 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Raguet El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 419 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-478
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $41,621
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75965

• Rents YoY: 12.9%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,531/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $170	+0% $141	+5% $113	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $92	+0% $141	+5% $191	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $167	base $141	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3230 Pearl St Unit 6 1 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	2.5	1054	$1,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.10mi
3300 Pearl St Unit 122 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,050	$1.04	45d	1	0.10mi
2521 Pearl St #207 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$950	$1.06	45d	1	0.39mi
126 Wortham Dr Nacogdoches, TX	4.0	2.0	1485	$1,815	$1.22	45d	1	0.44mi
2325 Pearl St Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	45d	1	0.54mi
4100 North St Nacogdoches, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,500	$1.80	45d	5	0.61mi
409 S Steen Dr Unit 104 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	45d	1	0.69mi
2109 Pearl St Unit F15 Nacogdoches, TX	3.0	1.5	939	$1,075	$1.14	45d	1	0.78mi
2109 Pearl St Unit E12 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$975	$1.15	45d	1	0.78mi
327 W College St Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$850	$0.88	45d	1	0.83mi
1905 Banita St #102 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	2.0	875	$1,950	$2.23	45d	1	0.93mi
216 W Starr Ave #102 Nacogdoches, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$2,000	$1.83	45d	1	1.24mi
4541 NE Stallings Dr Nacogdoches, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,189	$1.70	45d	1	1.33mi
4502 N University Dr Nacogdoches, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,241	$1.71	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-23
   price $99,900
3. 2025-09-02
   price $104,900
4. 2025-07-22
   status Active
5. 2025-07-22
   price $105,900
6. 2025-06-28
   historical
7. 2025-05-16
   status Active
8. 2025-04-11
   status Pending
9. 2025-03-20
   status Active
10. 2025-03-07
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,531 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,531
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nacogdoches ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832090
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,759
• Composite: 22.98/100
• National rank: #7983
• State rank: #688 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nacogdoches

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #5962

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nacogdoches, TX
• County: Nacogdoches County · 53,896 people
• City population: 53,896
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,243
• Household income: $55,291
• Rent vs Own: 48.6% rent · 51.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (Nacogdoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,553 people
• By 2030: 66,920 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 66,833 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 66,462 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 65,710 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 62,321 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Nacogdoches

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.2% · R 69.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+31.3 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+36.2 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.81%
• Current HPI: 178.4946
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.91%
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $99,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $104,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-07-22 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $105,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-06-28 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-05-16 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-04-11 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-03-20 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $109,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,531 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.