4612 E Camino Segundo -- · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1981 1.14 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is it! Well maintained manufactured home on a large lot with detached garage/workshop. Split bedroom plan, spacious living room, covered front patio, and Mountain View's. Ready to go! Home starts here!

Key facts

• Separate garage
• Pantry space
• Natural gas

Tags

• PANTRY SPACE
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM
• NATURAL GAS
• FENCED GARDEN AREA
• SEPARATE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot; Lot size recorded by assessor
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking space (1); Detached garage; Garage space for 1 vehicle; RV access/parking with gated RV gate
• Security: Gated parking/RV gate
• Utilities: Septic system (septic in and connected, septic tank); Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road surface
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Shed(s); Chain link and wire fencing; Horses allowed; Dirt front and dirt back yard; Natural desert backyard; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Mini-split and natural gas; Cooling: Evaporative cooling, mini-split, and window/wall units (see remarks)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Dual-pane vinyl-frame windows; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.20%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,640
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $39,214
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5333 S Santa Claus Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,900	$1.09	43d	1	0.41mi
3618 E Shawnee Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,000	$0.90	43d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 577-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2021-12-23
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This is it! Well maintained manufactured home on a large lot with detached garage/workshop. Split bedroom plan, spacious living room, covered front patio, and Mountain View's. Ready to go! Home starts here!

20. 2021-12-23
    soldstatus $140,000

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This is it! Well maintained manufactured home on a large lot with detached garage/workshop. Split bedroom plan, spacious living room, covered front patio, and Mountain View's. Ready to go! Home starts here!

21. 2021-12-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This is it! Well maintained manufactured home on a large lot with detached garage/workshop. Split bedroom plan, spacious living room, covered front patio, and Mountain View's. Ready to go! Home starts here!

22. 2021-11-30
    listed $125,000 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    This is it! Well maintained manufactured home on a large lot with detached garage/workshop. Split bedroom plan, spacious living room, covered front patio, and Mountain View's. Ready to go! Home starts here!

23. 2001-12-12
    soldstatus $14,000
24. 1983-07-28
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+226.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-11-30 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2001-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $73 · -88.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.