1561 Tallowtree Dr · The Villages, FL 32162

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2006 8,443 sqft lot Est $373k · 6% under $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This TURNKEY, fully furnished home is the one you have been waiting for! Situated on an oversized corner homesite with ROOM FOR A POOL, this beautifully maintained property truly shows like a model home. The golf cart is available separately, making it even easier to begin enjoying The Villages lifestyle immediately. From the moment you arrive, you will appreciate the inviting front porch with railing, mature landscaping, and outstanding curb appeal. Step inside to discover volume ceilings and laminate flooring throughout the main living areas and guest bedrooms, with carpet reserved for the primary bedroom for added comfort. The kitchen is bright and cheerful featuring White Bay cabinetry,

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Room for a pool
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER HOMESITE
• ROOM FOR A POOL
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• VOLUME CEILINGS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey (furnished); Total building area listed (per public records): 2,198 sq ft; Living area listed (per public records): 1,527 sq ft
• Financial info: CDD in place
• HOA & community: Community amenities: community mailbox, dog park, fitness center, park, playground, pool, tennis courts; Golf carts allowed; Deed restrictions; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 22); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Rain gutters; Vinyl fencing; Irrigation equipment; Sprinkler metered; Corner lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan with living/dining combo; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,118/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $224k; list at $350k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,750 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1561 Tallowtree Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,527 (0%)	1mo	$349,900	$229	100
2752 Iris Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-2%)	1mo	$460,000	$308	88
2583 Raintree Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	4mo	$340,000	$244	80
1647 Scotch Pine Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+9%)	1mo	$439,900	$264	74
1451 Rosedale Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+6%)	1mo	$370,000	$230	72
2348 Midnight Pass Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-0%)	2mo	$449,900	$296	72
2367 Camden Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-8%)	1mo	$342,000	$245	66
2588 English Ivy Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-9%)	0mo	$265,000	$191	64
1369 Suffield St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-3%)	4mo	$276,000	$185	64
2572 Berrington Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-3%)	4mo	$295,000	$199	63
1920 Tranquility Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+5%)	1mo	$375,000	$233	58
1887 Loadstar Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+11%)	1mo	$456,000	$270	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,190
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-56,627
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,331/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,328

Max offer price $320,554

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-67	+0% $-166	+5% $-265	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-289	+0% $-166	+5% $-43	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-77	base $-166	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	0.37mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	22d	1	0.45mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	22d	1	0.54mi
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	22d	1	0.57mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	22d	1	0.82mi
2192 Quinn Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$5,600	$3.48	22d	1	1.06mi
1623 Abernethy Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,800	$3.07	22d	1	1.09mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,384	$2.20	22d	28	1.11mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	22d	1	1.14mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	22d	1	1.22mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	22d	1	1.23mi
2393 Highbanks Ct The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,800	$1.84	22d	1	1.28mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	1.29mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	22d	1	1.33mi
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	22d	1	1.34mi
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	22d	1	1.34mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	22d	1	1.35mi
2393 Carriage Hill Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$4,300	$2.64	22d	1	1.40mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	22d	1	1.42mi
5339 Loblolly Ln Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,000	$1.18	22d	1	1.45mi
798 Journey Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,300	$1.48	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $349,900 Active
3. 2017-10-10
   soldstatus $224,000
4. 2017-08-15
   historical
5. 2017-08-15
   historical
6. 2017-08-11
   price $249,500
7. 2017-08-02
   price $249,900
8. 2017-07-19
   listed $259,500 Active
9. 2017-07-19
   listed $249,500
10. 2013-12-16
    soldstatus $219,900
11. 2013-05-14
    soldstatus $185,500
12. 2010-08-19
    soldstatus $170,400
13. 2010-08-13
    soldstatus $170,400
14. 2010-01-18
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,331 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,331 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$5,331
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,993
• − Management: −$2,993
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+94.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $224,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-11 Price Changed $249,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-19 Listed $259,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-19 Listed $249,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2013-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $185,500 Public Records
• 2010-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $170,400 Public Records
• 2010-08-13 Sold (MLS) $170,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-18 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,331 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.