190 Michaels Ln · Westwood Shores, TX 77320

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2002 0.37 ac lot $89/sqft · 9% above area Est $73k · 9% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rural subdivision with well kept properties. This is a manufactured home with two bedrooms that both have there own private bath. Nice sized kitchen with refrigerator remaining and area for small dining table and chairs. Area in the hall leading into primary bedroom for washer and dryer. Great back deck overlooking wooded area which gives lots of privacy in your backyard. Nice storage room to right of the home. HVAC unit is newer. Vacant and ready for new owner!

Key facts

• Storage room
• Private bath
• Back deck

Tags

• PRIVATE BATH
• BACK DECK
• WOODED AREA
• STORAGE ROOM
• NEWER HVAC UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.96%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,370
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $11,819
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $41,825
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $413	+0% $391	+5% $368	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $345	+0% $391	+5% $437	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $411	base $391	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $79,900 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Rural subdivision with well kept properties. This is a manufactured home with two bedrooms that both have there own private bath. Nice sized kitchen with refrigerator remaining and area for small dining table and chairs. Area in the hall leading into primary bedroom for washer and dryer. Great back deck overlooking wooded area which gives lots of privacy in your backyard. Nice storage room to right of the home. HVAC unit is newer. Vacant and ready for new owner!

18. 2007-08-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 117.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$867
• After-tax cash flow: $3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2007-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.