8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 54 · Gold Hill, OR 97502

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Land public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1998 $119/sqft · at area comps Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country setting in desireable 55 + Madrone Hills Park, (Old Stage) Central Point. Lovely very well maintained 3 bdrm, 2 bath + office 1998 Palm Harbor home. Light & bright with oversized windows & vaulted ceilings. Private covered deck, shed, flower beds & nice lawn area to enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1998
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Mobile Home in park; Flood information: Not applicable
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $685
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park community features; CC&Rs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Concrete surfaces
• Security: No audio or video surveillance on premises; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Shared well water; Sewer: Other; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a park; One story; May remain in park; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1998; Composition roof; Metal skirting; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Palm Harbor manufacturer
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Garden; Landscaped; Level lot; Paved road access; Shed(s); Double-pane windows; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry; Breakfast nook; Dining room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump (heating and cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bedroom on main level; Shower/tub combo; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.4% in Gold Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#220 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 229 students, 66% FRL); Hanby Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 375 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $180k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.87%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,056
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -0.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $16,195
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $81,084
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $180,000 Active 587-char remark
17. 2024-04-05
    historical
18. 2024-03-27
    price $169,000
19. 2024-03-11
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2004-04-29
    soldstatus $55,000

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Country setting in desireable 55 + Madrone Hills Park, (Old Stage) Central Point. Lovely very well maintained 3 bdrm, 2 bath + office 1998 Palm Harbor home. Light & bright with oversized windows & vaulted ceilings. Private covered deck, shed, flower beds & nice lawn area to enjoy the outdoors.

21. 2004-03-15
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Country setting in desireable 55 + Madrone Hills Park, (Old Stage) Central Point. Lovely very well maintained 3 bdrm, 2 bath + office 1998 Palm Harbor home. Light & bright with oversized windows & vaulted ceilings. Private covered deck, shed, flower beds & nice lawn area to enjoy the outdoors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,052/yr (+$88/mo · 151.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $5,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $6,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Gold Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #14969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $180,000 MLSCO
• 2024-04-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $169,000 MLSCO
• 2024-03-11 Listed $175,000 MLSCO
• 2004-04-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MLSCO
• 2004-03-15 Listed $55,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $694 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.