1111 Elk Run · Howell, MI 48843

$420,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2001 $186/sqft · 9% below area Est $461k · 9% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: THE FOREST SITE CONDO; Community sidewalks; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee ($95)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Partially finished basement with sump pump; Built above grade finished area and additional below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Exterior lighting; Wooded lot with native plants; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; Smart thermostat; Gas fireplace in great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and gas dryer hookups; Gas water heater; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Howell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#107 in MI, #2,598 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Howell Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #116 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parker Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #161 of 493 statewide, top 33%, 741 students, 34% FRL); Howell High School (math 36% / reading 60%, grade D, #183 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 2,024 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 345 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $306,740 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,026
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-80,884
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-87,297
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48843

• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,558/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,320

Max offer price $384,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-81	+0% $-199	+5% $-318	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-442	-5% $-321	+0% $-199	+5% $-78	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-93	base $-199	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2147 Shale Dr Unit 82HOMESITE 82 Howell, MI	4.0	2.5	2218	$3,200	$1.44	19d	1	0.62mi
2132 Shale Dr Unit 84 Howell, MI	4.0	2.5	2218	$3,200	$1.44	19d	1	0.63mi
2102 Steelwood Dr Howell, MI	4.0	2.5	2218	$3,200	$1.44	19d	1	0.66mi
1043 Kenny Brook Ln Howell, MI	4.0	2.5	1830	$2,295	$1.25	3d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: gasgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

   Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

   Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-05-09
   listed $420,000 Active 1429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

   Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-05-09
   listed $420,000 Active 1441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

   Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-05-07
   historical $420,000 1429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1429 chars)

   Welcome Home to 1111 Elk Run! Charm meets comfort in this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath Tudor-style home. From the moment you arrive, the classic brick exterior, covered front porch with columned detail, and rich mahogany entry door set the tone for the warmth found inside. Step into a soaring two-story foyer with gleaming porcelain tile floors and an elegant staircase that immediately impresses. The expansive great room is the heart of the home, featuring a gas fireplace, wall of windows that flood the space with natural light - perfectly suited for both relaxed evenings and entertaining. The open sightlines connect seamlessly to the kitchen, which boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar peninsula, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and an abundance of oak cabinetry. Step outside from the main level onto the elevated deck - It's the ideal spot for morning coffee or summer gatherings. The primary suite offers a true retreat with a spacious ensuite bath featuring dual granite vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The finished lower level adds even more living space with recessed lighting, perfect for a rec room, gym, or hobby space. This home also offers many updates, please see additional documents for a full list. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity - schedule your showing today!

6. 2010-04-30
   soldstatus $137,382
7. 2010-04-28
   soldstatus $151,000

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Gorgeous home features first floor Master Suite, vaulted ceilings, formal dining, large open kitchen and a private wooded backyard. Subject to 3rd party approval. Commission subject to change and will be split 50-50

8. 2010-04-28
   soldstatus $151,000

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Gorgeous home features first floor Master Suite, vaulted ceilings, formal dining, large open kitchen and a private wooded backyard. Subject to 3rd party approval. Commission subject to change and will be split 50-50

9. 2009-10-19
   listed $144,900

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Gorgeous home features first floor Master Suite, vaulted ceilings, formal dining, large open kitchen and a private wooded backyard. Subject to 3rd party approval. Commission subject to change and will be split 50-50

10. 2007-08-25
    historical
11. 2007-03-03
    listed $259,900
12. 2007-03-01
    historical
13. 2006-08-28
    historical
14. 2006-08-24
    listed $264,900
15. 2006-06-14
    listed $284,900
16. 2005-10-25
    historical
17. 2005-08-26
    listed $284,900
18. 2002-03-06
    soldstatus $270,000
19. 2001-12-21
    soldstatus $270,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,513 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,955/yr (+$163/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$2,558
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,945
• − Management: −$2,945
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$9,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,368
• After-tax cash flow: $-25/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618720
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,453
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #3473
• State rank: #116 of 540 in MI

Livability — Howell

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #2598

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 48,014
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $94,577
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 644.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Italian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -326.17%
• Current HPI: 180.5058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $450,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Listed $420,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $420,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $420,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $137,382 Public Records
• 2010-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-28 Sold (MLS) $151,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-10-19 Listed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-03-03 Listed $259,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-03-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-08-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-08-24 Listed $264,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-06-14 Listed $284,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-10-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-08-26 Listed $284,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,558 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.