196 Pebble Creek Dr · Eddyville, KY 42038

$229,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2006 0.42 ac lot Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss the opportunity to tour this charming, well-maintained home. This move-in-ready property features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a two-car carport, a one-car attached garage, and two additional storage buildings. Key updates and features include: - New flooring - New roof installed in 2022 (includes warranty) - New attic insulation - Sump pump, plastic barrier, and an interior-controlled dehumidifier installed in the crawlspace - Large deck with a pergola The home is conveniently located within a few miles of Lake Barkley. It is truly adorable inside and out—schedule a viewing today so you don't miss out

Key facts

• Large deck
• Sump pump
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW ATTIC INSULATION
• SUMP PUMP
• LARGE DECK
• PERGOLA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.7% in Eddyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#174 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lyon County (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lyon County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 457 students, 58% FRL); Lyon County Middle School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C+, #16 of 217 statewide, top 7%, 243 students, 51% FRL); Lyon County High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 298 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $230k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.58%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,288
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Pebble Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	1mo	$236,000	$142	97
87 Pebble Creek Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-7%)	23mo	$200,000	$129	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $12,443
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $74,531
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42038

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 2025-09-17
   price $219,000
4. 2025-08-15
   price $222,000
5. 2025-07-07
   price $225,000
6. 2025-06-20
   listed $230,000 Active
7. 2007-02-23
   soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,977 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,409/yr (+$117/mo · 248.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,589
• − Management: −$2,589
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $5,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,417
• After-tax cash flow: $7,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyon County
• NCES district ID: 2103690
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,899
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3607
• State rank: #13 of 165 in KY

Livability — Eddyville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #8755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eddyville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 6,045

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,330 people
• By 2030: 8,308 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 8,196 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 8,069 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 8,131 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 6,856 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.7% · R 76.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.82%
• Current HPI: 148.5677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+132.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $229,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $219,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $222,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $225,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $230,000 WKRMLS
• 2007-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $568 · +30.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.