8711 Aspen · California City, CA 93505

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1959 9,664 sqft lot $239/sqft · at area comps Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 8711 Aspen Ave, this inviting home features three spacious bedrooms, ideal for families or those seeking extra space for a home office or guest accommodations. The well-appointed bathroom is designed with functionality in mind, ensuring convenience for daily living. The heart of this home is its brand-new kitchen, complete with contemporary finishes. The title floor throughout the main living areas adds a touch of elegance while ensuring easy maintenance. With numerous upgrades throughout, including fresh interior paint, this property is move-in ready, allowing you to settle in without the hassle of renovations.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Brand-new kitchen
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• MOVE-IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: One garage space; One total parking space
• Utilities: Public/District water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Attached house; One story
• Construction: Structure: House; Year built reported from public records; Two or more common walls
• Exterior features: No pool; Irregular-shaped lot; Lot size reported from assessor's data (6500–9999)

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Single-level living; Ground-level entry; All bedrooms located on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the kitchen; Laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,889 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.23%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,440
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -3.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8757 N Loop Blvd	0.40mi	3/1.0	990 (+1%)	1mo	$209,000	$211	79
8651 S South Loop Boulevard Blvd	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+7%)	8mo	$143,280	$136	68
8037 Walpole Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+3%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	61
20360 86th St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	11mo	$226,500	$225	61
20661 91st St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (+4%)	6mo	$212,834	$209	60
8900 Manzanita Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	984 (0%)	9mo	$215,000	$218	58
9037 Xavier Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-6%)	9mo	$200,000	$217	57
20837 87th St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+12%)	23mo	$270,000	$245	56
8318 Quezon Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+2%)	22mo	$270,000	$270	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $117,150
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $365,490
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,886/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $193,979

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8712 California City Blvd Unit 2 California City, CA	2.0	1.5	715	$1,150	$1.61	23d	1	0.03mi
8709 Xavier Ave Unit 3 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	14d	1	0.14mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	3d	1	0.18mi
8655 N Loop Blvd Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	23d	1	0.21mi
8531 Columbine Ave Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	14d	1	0.23mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	14d	1	0.32mi
20912 83rd St Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,150	$1.47	23d	1	0.38mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.40mi
8318 Dogbane Ave Unit F California City, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	23d	1	0.47mi
21113 Nemophilia St Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.0	761	$1,250	$1.64	23d	1	0.49mi
21411 Hacienda Blvd Unit D California City, CA	2.0	2.0	898	$1,475	$1.64	23d	1	0.72mi
9387 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	807	$1,150	$1.43	23d	1	0.84mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	23d	1	0.92mi
7819 Walpole Ave California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	23d	1	0.94mi
21001 Berry St Unit 5 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,150	$1.29	23d	1	1.06mi
7617 California City Blvd Apt B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,225	$1.37	3d	1	1.09mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	1.20mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.20mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	3d	1	1.20mi
9817 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,075	$1.26	2d	1	1.25mi
9825 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	883	$1,350	$1.53	19d	1	1.26mi
9848 Sally Ave Unit 2 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,495	$1.53	23d	1	1.31mi
9933 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$1,875	$2.09	23d	1	1.36mi
21306 Bancroft Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,800	$1.99	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-04-26
    listed $235,000 Active 629-char remark
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $235,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Welcome to 8711 Aspen Ave, this inviting home features three spacious bedrooms, ideal for families or those seeking extra space for a home office or guest accommodations. The well-appointed bathroom is designed with functionality in mind, ensuring convenience for daily living. The heart of this home is its brand-new kitchen, complete with contemporary finishes. The title floor throughout the main living areas adds a touch of elegance while ensuring easy maintenance. With numerous upgrades throughout, including fresh interior paint, this property is move-in ready, allowing you to settle in without the hassle of renovations.

18. 2022-07-22
    historical
19. 2022-06-06
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2021-03-09
    soldstatus $129,999 Closed
21. 2021-03-09
    soldstatus $130,000
22. 2021-02-05
    price $129,999
23. 2021-02-05
    price $129,900
24. 2021-02-02
    price $129,000
25. 2021-01-01
    listed $120,000 Active
26. 2020-08-13
    historical
27. 2020-03-24
    status Active
28. 2020-03-17
    status Pending
29. 2020-03-06
    price $110,000
30. 2020-02-24
    price $105,000
31. 2020-02-07
    price $110,000
32. 2020-02-07
    price $119,000
33. 2020-02-07
    price $114,900
34. 2020-02-06
    listed $110,000 Active
35. 2018-06-11
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed
36. 2018-06-11
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed Sale
37. 2018-06-05
    soldstatus $65,000
38. 2018-05-10
    status Pending Sale
39. 2018-05-10
    status Pending
40. 2018-04-12
    listed $65,000 Active
41. 2017-12-27
    historical
42. 2017-12-26
    status Pending Sale
43. 2017-12-26
    status Pending
44. 2017-12-26
    historical
45. 2017-10-30
    price $70,000
46. 2017-10-30
    price $70,000
47. 2017-07-27
    listed $74,900 Active
48. 2017-07-27
    listed $74,900 Active
49. 2016-12-13
    historical
50. 2016-12-13
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,886
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+244.0% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $215,000 AVMLS
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $235,000 AVMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-06 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2021-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-09 Sold (MLS) $129,999 AVMLS
• 2021-02-05 Price Changed $129,999 AVMLS
• 2021-02-05 Price Changed $129,900 AVMLS
• 2021-02-02 Price Changed $129,000 AVMLS
• 2021-01-01 Listed $120,000 AVMLS
• 2020-08-13 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2020-03-24 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2020-03-17 Pending — AVMLS
• 2020-03-06 Price Changed $110,000 AVMLS
• 2020-02-24 Price Changed $105,000 AVMLS
• 2020-02-07 Price Changed $110,000 AVMLS
• 2020-02-07 Price Changed $119,000 AVMLS
• 2020-02-07 Price Changed $114,900 AVMLS
• 2020-02-06 Listed $110,000 AVMLS
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 AVMLS
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-05-10 Pending — AVMLS
• 2018-04-12 Listed $65,000 AVMLS
• 2017-12-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2017-12-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-12-26 Pending — AVMLS
• 2017-12-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-10-30 Price Changed $70,000 AVMLS
• 2017-10-30 Price Changed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $74,900 AVMLS
• 2016-12-13 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2016-12-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-07-20 Listed $62,500 AVMLS
• 2016-07-19 Listed $62,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,886 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.