10280 Obrien · LaCoste, TX 78002

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1997 1.90 ac lot $128/sqft · 11% below area Est $257k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in LaCoste — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#975 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,319 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,364
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -11.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-43,517
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,254
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78002

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $211,329

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $229,000 New
15. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,021/yr (+$168/mo · 93.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — LaCoste

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #975
• US rank: #17253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,482

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.59%
• Current HPI: 338.8833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $229,000 LERA
• 2022-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,170 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.