15 Mattix Run #15 · Smithville, NJ 08205

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · Townhouse · 37 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition Est $182k · at est. $260/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your third and private floor living space. New carpet in living room and hallway and fresh paint in this 2 bedroom spacious condo. Kitchen and bath were updated 4 years ago. Vacant and ready for a quick sale! Owner Occupants Only!!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Updated bath
• New carpet

Tags

• PRIVATE FLOOR LIVING SPACE
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-145/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (0.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#402 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #319 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $185k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,267
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Mattix Run	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,007 (0%)	0mo	$126,000	$125	97
48 Mattix Run #48	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	2mo	$165,000	$165	97
17 Mattix Run #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,007 (0%)	6mo	$165,000	$164	95
46 Mattix Run #46	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	15mo	$159,900	$160	84
25 Mattix Run #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+10%)	17mo	$215,000	$194	65
265 Mattix Run #265	0.38mi	2/1.5	1,140 (+13%)	4mo	$215,000	$189	55
60 Mattix Run #60	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+10%)	23mo	$200,000	$181	51
283 Mattix Run	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,140 (+13%)	14mo	$230,000	$202	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-30,560
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,836
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08205

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $183,249

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Mattix Run Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,800	$1.79	21d	1	0.06mi
180 Walden Way Galloway, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1037	$2,319	$2.24	1d	1	0.63mi
31 Arapaho Pl Unit 1 Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$2,100	$2.46	13d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Under Contract 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $185,000 Under Contract 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $185,000 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Welcome to your third and private floor living space. New carpet in living room and hallway and fresh paint in this 2 bedroom spacious condo. Kitchen and bath were updated 4 years ago. Vacant and ready for a quick sale! Owner Occupants Only!!

18. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

19. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

20. 2021-09-20
    historical Under Contract 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

21. 2021-09-08
    status Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

22. 2021-08-19
    historical 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

23. 2021-08-19
    listed $95,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

24. 2021-08-16
    price $95,500 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

25. 2021-06-16
    listed $95,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    * * * * * * WELCOME HOME TO THE WOODS AT GREAT CREEK! * * * * * * * Super Affordable Condo is perfect for the downsizer, Make this a Summer to remember w/ a 2nd home at the Jersey Shore or Professional person. Also, ideal for This Spacious top level 3rd floor condo unit has views of nature from your private upper deck. Generous sized Master Suite complete w/ a walk in closet, Good sized 2nd bedroom . Great complex with swimming pool, tennis courts and low fees make this a winner. New hot Water Heater and Central Air Conditioning Unit. Guaranteed a best buy! This is a must see. * * * UPDATE * * * * Owner just painted whole condo. Owner also just put new carpet throughout and new floors in the bathroom as well as the laundry room

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom townhouse is in good condition with recent updates to the kitchen and bath. It's ready for a quick sale and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and new carpet in the living room and hallway.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Replace the carpet in the living room and hallway — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace the carpet in the living room and hallway — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3406060
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,324
• Composite: 28.94/100
• National rank: #6629
• State rank: #319 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #13992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment B- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 28,877
• Household income: $93,370
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.12%
• Current HPI: 315.4814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+94.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $185,000 SJSRMLS
• 2021-10-05 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SJSRMLS
• 2021-10-05 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SJSRMLS
• 2021-09-20 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2021-09-08 Relisted — SJSRMLS
• 2021-08-19 Listed $95,500 SJSRMLS
• 2021-08-19 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2021-08-16 Price Changed $95,500 SJSRMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $95,000 SJSRMLS