489 Cedar Ave · West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$2,100,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 302 Days on market

Built 1949 1.01 ac lot Est $1831k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see this great house that is over 3,700 sq feet and sitting on 196x225 corner lot. Over 1 acre of property near Larchwood Ave, one of the largest lots with room for pool and ball court. This 6 bedroom 3 full bath home boasts a newer kitchen and baths. Hardwood floors throughout, and high ceilings. Great primary suite. Large open floor plan. Room for 2,500 sq foot expansion if desired. A/C is 2 yrs old. Close to houses of worship, beaches and shopping.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 302 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; 3,707 living area
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41k ($493k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($70k rent vs $2.10M).
• Recommended offer: $1.85M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 1.9% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $63k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $588k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $190k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,848,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.77%
• DSCR: 4.73
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,831,258
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Hollywood Ave	0.25mi	6/3.5	3,848 (+4%)	4mo	$1,900,000	$494	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $2,275,234
• Equity at exit: $313,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.10×
• Total profit: $5,352,083
• Equity at exit: $181,570

Cash invested: $588,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07764

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $70,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,013
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,625 /mo · $31,500/yr
• Insurance: −$875
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,770
• Net cashflow: $41,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,370

Max offer price $2,100,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42,501	-5% $41,775	+0% $41,049	+5% $40,324	+10% $39,598
Rent	-10% $35,493	-5% $38,271	+0% $41,049	+5% $43,828	+10% $46,606
Rate	-1.0pp $42,107	-0.5pp $41,584	base $41,049	+0.5pp $40,505	+1.0pp $39,952

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $525,000
• Closing costs: $63,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Hollywood Ave West Long Branch, NJ	6.0	4.0	4104	$6,200	$1.51	0d	1	0.17mi
7 Elinore Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	2.0	2848	$2,600	$0.91	25d	1	0.66mi
279 Lake Ave Long Branch, NJ	7.0	5.0	3252	$90,000	$27.68	25d	1	0.75mi
265 Norgrove Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	2982	$3,250	$1.09	25d	1	0.90mi
60 Larchwood Ave Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	3.0	2712	$67,500	$24.89	25d	1	0.93mi
216 Lenox Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	2.5	2825	$43,000	$15.22	25d	1	0.94mi
25 Muncy Dr West Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	4347	$99,000	$22.77	22d	1	0.98mi
24 Valley Forge Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	4.5	3934	$4,500	$1.14	0d	1	1.14mi
45 Roslyn Ct Long Branch, NJ	7.0	3.5	2580	$3,700	$1.43	25d	1	1.22mi
20 Roslyn Dr Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	4.5	2541	$11,000	$4.33	0d	1	1.25mi
58 Georgetown Rd Eatontown, NJ	5.0	4.0	3665	$57,000	$15.55	22d	1	1.32mi
63 Jamestown Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	3.5	2755	$70,000	$25.41	22d	1	1.42mi
223 Lewis St Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	2.5	2499	$4,000	$1.60	25d	1	1.48mi
534 Apple Dr Oakhurst, NJ	5.0	3.5	2919	$45,000	$15.42	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $2,100,000 Active 293 DOM
9. 2025-10-30
   price $2,100,000
10. 2025-08-11
    listed $2,290,000 Active
11. 2025-05-16
    price $2,350,000
12. 2025-02-09
    listed $2,450,000 Active
13. 2018-07-19
    historical
14. 2018-05-27
    price $799,000
15. 2018-04-27
    listed $849,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $843,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$117,633
• − Property taxes: −$31,500
• − Insurance: −$10,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$67,518
• − Management: −$67,518
• − Depreciation: −$61,091
• Taxable income: $488,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117,173
• After-tax cash flow: $375,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Long Branch School District
• NCES district ID: 3417490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $87,522
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3108
• State rank: #154 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Long Branch

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #7916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Long Branch, NJ
• City population: 8,576
• Population (ZIP): 8,576

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.51%
• Current HPI: 432.648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+147.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $2,100,000 MOMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $2,290,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $2,350,000 MOMLS
• 2025-02-09 Listed $2,450,000 MOMLS
• 2018-07-19 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-05-27 Price Changed $799,000 MOMLS
• 2018-04-27 Listed $849,000 MOMLS