2475 Baldwin St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1925 Est $43k · 7% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated home, includes empty lot next door, 1 car garage enclosed back yard, cozy home for a small family, partially finished basement, appliances are included (stove and refrigerator)

Key facts

• Enclosed back yard
• Built 1925
• Listed 36 days

Tags

• ENCLOSED BACK YARD
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• APPLIANCES ARE INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.62%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4149 Hess Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0	879 (+2%)	6mo	$16,500	$19	89
2400 Bewick St	0.16mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	3mo	$5,000	$6	81
2516 Bewick St	0.14mi	2/1.0	756 (-12%)	3mo	$38,000	$50	70
2021 Cumberland St	0.56mi	2/1.0	874 (+1%)	5mo	$14,500	$17	68
4126 Morris St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	3mo	$22,500	$24	66
2735 Ohio St	0.63mi	2/1.0	832 (-4%)	5mo	$57,000	$69	60
2837 Longview Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	14mo	$89,900	$104	60
2839 Ohio Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	888 (+3%)	14mo	$72,500	$82	51
3531 Summer Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0	804 (-7%)	5mo	$47,500	$59	50
3016 Fairview St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	954 (+10%)	3mo	$22,000	$23	47
2799 Longview Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+12%)	3mo	$37,500	$39	46
4749 Strathmoor St	0.63mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	12mo	$90,000	$94	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $25,389
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $63,140
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $276/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $316

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.42mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.42mi
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	0.53mi
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $40,000 Active 184-char remark
17. 2006-05-08
    historical
18. 2006-05-08
    historical
19. 2005-11-08
    listed $44,900
20. 2005-11-08
    listed $44,900
21. 2005-10-02
    historical
22. 2005-10-02
    historical
23. 2005-04-02
    listed $44,900
24. 2005-04-02
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$276
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $4,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com
• 2006-05-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-05-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-11-08 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-11-08 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-10-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-10-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-04-02 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-04-02 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $276 · -49.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.