16960 Balch Pl · Mannsville, NY 13661

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1920 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape the Noise: 5-Acre Forest Retreat on Balch Road Privacy, Potential, and Peace for $110,000 Are you tired of neighbor’s lawnmowers and through-traffic? Welcome to the end of the road—literally. Tucked away on a secluded lot on of Balch Road this is a dead end road in the quiet town of Ellisburg, this property offers the kind of seclusion most people only find in storybooks. The Highlights The Land: 5 sprawling acres of private paradise. The house is completely cradled by dense forest, providing a natural buffer from the outside world and a front-row seat to local wildlife. As well as a charming pond. The House: A solid, 3-bedroom, 1-bath footprint waiting for your visi

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5 acres (lot dimensions 330 x 676)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story existing home
• Construction: Wood siding; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular, rural lot

Interior

• Kitchen: See remarks for kitchen details
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (see remarks); Has heating
• Interior features: Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,040 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $55,271
• Equity at exit: $77,022

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $148,670
• Equity at exit: $147,032

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13661

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,271/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $110,000 Active 1270-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,271
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$335
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mannsville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1040
• US rank: #20560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,043

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% German 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.11%
• Current HPI: 314.8163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,271 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.