3002 Fair Wind Ln · Texas City, TX 77510

$369,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 7,779 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience modern luxury in this stunning new construction home, nestled in the highly sought-after Lago Mar community. This brick and stone home boasts a spacious layout with a formal dining room & a chef-inspired kitchen featuring granite countertops, elegant white cabinetry, and top-of-the-line stainless steel Whirlpool appliances. The serene primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a spa-like bathroom complete with a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy added privacy in this home’s fenced backyard, complete with a covered patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. The yard also features a built-in sprinkler system, making la

Key facts

• 7,779 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $369,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,704.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $337,470 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,704
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+1%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	78
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-1%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	76
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,063 (-6%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	75
14318 Lunan Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+4%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	74
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,126 (-3%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	73
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+12%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	69
14010 Baikal Manor Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+4%)	2mo	$343,990	$152	68
13601 Fairway Arbor Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (+9%)	1mo	$394,990	$166	60
13216 Harbor Point Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-5%)	2mo	$375,990	$181	58
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-8%)	1mo	$291,400	$144	56
2809 Palm Branch Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (+9%)	2mo	$425,990	$179	45
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-13%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-46,215
• Equity at exit: $51,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-27,264
• Equity at exit: $29,890

Cash invested: $96,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,186/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,182

Max offer price $345,704

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $271	+0% $152	+5% $32	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $19	+0% $152	+5% $285	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $240	base $152	+0.5pp $62	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,426
• Closing costs: $10,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.10mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	1.16mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	5d	2	1.31mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.46mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-12
   listed $369,900 Active
3. 2025-09-10
   historical
4. 2025-08-28
   listed $435,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,365
• − Property taxes: −$5,186
• − Insurance: −$1,729
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,057
• Taxable loss: −$3,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$916
• After-tax cash flow: $2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $435,900 HARMLS