1542 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$336,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 3,659 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $321k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sparingly lived in Townhome Motivated Seller , Make an Offer. The Summerhouse, Model Plan | 1,900 Sq. Ft. | Two-story | 3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths | flex room | 2-car attached garage A a popular villa floor plan, Featuring Mid-level foyer with window nook opens to split stairway. Second floor has large family room open to breakfast area and island kitchen overlooking covered balcony. Spacious main suite with private bath, features separate corner tub and shower with seat, and large walk-in closet. Utility room and half bath conveniently located. Large first floor flex room leads to covered patio. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets. Full bath and under stair storage located near garage entry.. Premium Appliance Reputed Fort bend School District. Walk-in distance to Ayesha Elementary , and Prestigious Residence Only Sienna Oak Amenity Center with CLUBHOUSE, LAP POOL, SPORTS COURTS & EVENT LAWN

Key facts

• Split stairway
• Large family room
• Covered balcony

Tags

• MID-LEVEL FOYER
• SPLIT STAIRWAY
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $336k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $336k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,549
• List price: $336,000
• Delta: 4.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+0%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	93
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-2%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	90
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,835 (-3%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	88
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-3%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	86
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+1%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	80
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-10%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	76
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-3%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	76
9443 Garden Gate Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-10%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	75
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+4%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	71
1306 Shaded Rock Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+8%)	2mo	$365,915	$179	64
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,033 (+7%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	62
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+4%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-18,755
• Equity at exit: $70,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-8,173
• Equity at exit: $65,271

Cash invested: $94,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax from tax record: −$827 /mo · $9,918/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,621

Max offer price $336,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $636	-5% $541	+0% $446	+5% $351	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $281	+0% $446	+5% $611	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $532	base $446	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,000
• Closing costs: $10,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.51mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.53mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $336,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $336,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $336,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $336,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $336,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $336,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $336,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $336,000 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $336,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $336,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $336,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $336,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $336,000 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $336,000 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Sparingly lived in Townhome Motivated Seller , Make an Offer. The Summerhouse, Model Plan | 1,900 Sq. Ft. | Two-story | 3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths | flex room | 2-car attached garage A a popular villa floor plan, Featuring Mid-level foyer with window nook opens to split stairway. Second floor has large family room open to breakfast area and island kitchen overlooking covered balcony. Spacious main suite with private bath, features separate corner tub and shower with seat, and large walk-in closet. Utility room and half bath conveniently located. Large first floor flex room leads to covered patio. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets. Full bath and under stair storage located near garage entry.. Premium Appliance Reputed Fort bend School District. Walk-in distance to Ayesha Elementary , and Prestigious Residence Only Sienna Oak Amenity Center with CLUBHOUSE, LAP POOL, SPORTS COURTS & EVENT LAWN

15. 2026-01-13
    price $342,500 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Sparingly lived in Townhome Motivated Seller , Make an Offer. The Summerhouse, Model Plan | 1,900 Sq. Ft. | Two-story | 3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths | flex room | 2-car attached garage A a popular villa floor plan, Featuring Mid-level foyer with window nook opens to split stairway. Second floor has large family room open to breakfast area and island kitchen overlooking covered balcony. Spacious main suite with private bath, features separate corner tub and shower with seat, and large walk-in closet. Utility room and half bath conveniently located. Large first floor flex room leads to covered patio. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets. Full bath and under stair storage located near garage entry.. Premium Appliance Reputed Fort bend School District. Walk-in distance to Ayesha Elementary , and Prestigious Residence Only Sienna Oak Amenity Center with CLUBHOUSE, LAP POOL, SPORTS COURTS & EVENT LAWN

16. 2025-12-22
    listed $346,500 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Sparingly lived in Townhome Motivated Seller , Make an Offer. The Summerhouse, Model Plan | 1,900 Sq. Ft. | Two-story | 3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths | flex room | 2-car attached garage A a popular villa floor plan, Featuring Mid-level foyer with window nook opens to split stairway. Second floor has large family room open to breakfast area and island kitchen overlooking covered balcony. Spacious main suite with private bath, features separate corner tub and shower with seat, and large walk-in closet. Utility room and half bath conveniently located. Large first floor flex room leads to covered patio. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets. Full bath and under stair storage located near garage entry.. Premium Appliance Reputed Fort bend School District. Walk-in distance to Ayesha Elementary , and Prestigious Residence Only Sienna Oak Amenity Center with CLUBHOUSE, LAP POOL, SPORTS COURTS & EVENT LAWN

17. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus Sold 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    The Summerhouse, built by Chesmar Homes | 1,908 sq. ft. | Two Story Villa | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2 Car Garage | Covered Patio + 2nd Floor Balcony with a Yard! NOTE: Townhome is under construction, as such photos are REPRESENTATIVE of the floorplan and are NOT OF THE ACTUAL HOME. Selections and finishes will vary. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna. MAY 2022 estimated completion.

18. 2022-03-21
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    The Summerhouse, built by Chesmar Homes | 1,908 sq. ft. | Two Story Villa | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2 Car Garage | Covered Patio + 2nd Floor Balcony with a Yard! NOTE: Townhome is under construction, as such photos are REPRESENTATIVE of the floorplan and are NOT OF THE ACTUAL HOME. Selections and finishes will vary. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna. MAY 2022 estimated completion.

19. 2022-03-11
    price $384,015 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    The Summerhouse, built by Chesmar Homes | 1,908 sq. ft. | Two Story Villa | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2 Car Garage | Covered Patio + 2nd Floor Balcony with a Yard! NOTE: Townhome is under construction, as such photos are REPRESENTATIVE of the floorplan and are NOT OF THE ACTUAL HOME. Selections and finishes will vary. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna. MAY 2022 estimated completion.

20. 2022-02-09
    price $374,015 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    The Summerhouse, built by Chesmar Homes | 1,908 sq. ft. | Two Story Villa | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2 Car Garage | Covered Patio + 2nd Floor Balcony with a Yard! NOTE: Townhome is under construction, as such photos are REPRESENTATIVE of the floorplan and are NOT OF THE ACTUAL HOME. Selections and finishes will vary. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna. MAY 2022 estimated completion.

21. 2022-01-28
    listed $349,015 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    The Summerhouse, built by Chesmar Homes | 1,908 sq. ft. | Two Story Villa | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2 Car Garage | Covered Patio + 2nd Floor Balcony with a Yard! NOTE: Townhome is under construction, as such photos are REPRESENTATIVE of the floorplan and are NOT OF THE ACTUAL HOME. Selections and finishes will vary. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna. MAY 2022 estimated completion.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,918 · $827/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,918 · $827/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,821
• − Property taxes: −$9,918
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,018
• − Management: −$4,018
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$9,775
• Taxable income: $414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$99
• After-tax cash flow: $5,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed, particularly to the staircase and exterior. Painting the exterior and replacing worn handrails and carpet would significantly enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Staircase handrails — Worn handrails
• Minor Staircase carpet — Worn carpet

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace worn handrails — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Resale Replace worn carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Staircase handrails · Worn handrails	Minor	$500–3,000
Staircase carpet · Worn carpet	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace worn handrails — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace worn carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $336,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $342,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $346,500 HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Price Changed $384,015 HARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Price Changed $374,015 HARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Listed $349,015 HARMLS

Property tax history

+109.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,918 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.