42061 W Lunar St · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2017 5,098 sqft lot $224/sqft · 11% below area Est $327k · 11% under $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Become the proud owner of this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Santa Rosa Springs! Step inside to a bright, open living space, abundant natural light, and brand-new carpeting throughout, along with updated flooring. The kitchen features granite countertops, rich wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and an island with a breakfast bar-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers plush new carpet, a private bath, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the backyard with a covered patio and room to create your ideal outdoor space. A true move-in-ready gem!

Key facts

• Rich wood cabinetry
• Private bath
• Updated flooring

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• RICH WOOD CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,314 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,263
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41903 W Rojo St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+0%)	10mo	$290,000	$224	84
41945 W Lago St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+0%)	7mo	$307,000	$237	79
42975 W Vincent Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	3mo	$297,990	$220	65
42965 W Peters Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	3mo	$285,840	$211	63
42970 W Peters Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	4mo	$299,990	$222	63
42788 W Martie Lynn Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-1%)	12mo	$285,000	$223	54
18133 N Crestview Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+7%)	12mo	$275,000	$199	54
16625 N Lunar St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	11mo	$327,670	$231	54
42925 W Peters Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	5mo	$299,990	$222	53
42405 W Krista Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	14mo	$310,820	$220	53
42875 W Vincent Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	10mo	$298,148	$220	52
42405 W Peters Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	11mo	$305,000	$215	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,089
• Equity at exit: $71,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,345
• Equity at exit: $76,495

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $230,877

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-253	+0% $-335	+5% $-417	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-411	+0% $-335	+5% $-258	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-261	base $-335	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	45d	1	0.10mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	45d	1	0.13mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	5d	1	0.13mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	45d	1	0.18mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	26d	1	0.18mi
42584 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,723	$1.51	0d	60	0.33mi
41932 W Manderas Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1553	$1,850	$1.19	26d	1	0.38mi
17485 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,399	$1.48	0d	17	0.43mi
16720 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,750	$1.91	0d	28	0.46mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	18d	1	0.54mi
17645 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,150	$2.16	0d	16	0.55mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	26d	1	0.65mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	0.83mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	7d	1	0.96mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	26d	1	1.16mi
43361 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,795	$1.19	25d	1	1.19mi
43205 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	1.23mi
44000 W Palo Olmo Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1853	$1,850	$1.00	45d	1	1.24mi
40404 W Molly Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1803	$1,695	$0.94	45d	1	1.25mi
40250 W Green Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,395	$1.42	45d	1	1.35mi
44124 W Palo Cedro Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,595	$0.99	45d	1	1.35mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	13d	1	1.40mi
43269 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $290,000 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Become the proud owner of this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Santa Rosa Springs! Step inside to a bright, open living space, abundant natural light, and brand-new carpeting throughout, along with updated flooring. The kitchen features granite countertops, rich wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and an island with a breakfast bar-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers plush new carpet, a private bath, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the backyard with a covered patio and room to create your ideal outdoor space. A true move-in-ready gem!

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $295,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Become the proud owner of this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Santa Rosa Springs! Step inside to a bright, open living space, abundant natural light, and brand-new carpeting throughout, along with updated flooring. The kitchen features granite countertops, rich wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and an island with a breakfast bar-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers plush new carpet, a private bath, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the backyard with a covered patio and room to create your ideal outdoor space. A true move-in-ready gem!

18. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $7,565,325
19. 2009-12-30
    soldstatus $1,736,190

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,228
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-83.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2016-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $7,565,325 Public Records
• 2009-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,736,190 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.