11 B Lark St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1969 Average condition $93/sqft · 11% above area Est $81k · 11% over $470/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cedar Glen West Co-op 55 and Over Community. This 2 Bedroom Home has Upgraded windows and Hardwood Floors With NEW CARPET in Both Bedrooms and Both Bedrooms Have Been FRESHLY PAINTED. You can enjoy a relaxing day on your covered porch or take advantage of the free bus service to local shopping. Short drive to near by Swimming Lakes and Ocean Beaches and Boardwalks or take a short drive to Atlantic City. Your HOA fee covers Property Taxes ,Water ,Sewer, Lawn Maintenance , Roof, Gutters and Hot water heater and furnace.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Roof
• Lawn maintenance

Tags

• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED PORCH
• HOA FEE COVERS PROPERTY TAXES
• LAWN MAINTENANCE
• ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.76%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,397
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 10.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.07mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$57,500	$59	92
22 C Robin St	0.12mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	3mo	$158,000	$163	92
16 B Dove St	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	1mo	$73,000	$75	92
2C Dove St	0.11mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$78,000	$80	90
6 Dove St Unit D	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	3mo	$80,000	$82	89
18 Dove St Unit A	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$69,900	$72	88
12 Heron St Unit D	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	980 (+1%)	1mo	$120,000	$122	88
6 C Swallow St	0.23mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	2mo	$110,000	$113	88
17 Heron St Unit D	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	4mo	$55,000	$57	86
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	3mo	$53,000	$55	84
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	81
13B Pheasant St	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+13%)	0mo	$95,500	$87	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $26,885
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $77,702
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $708	-5% $677	+0% $646	+5% $615	+10% $584
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $559	+0% $646	+5% $733	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $669	base $646	+0.5pp $623	+1.0pp $599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,999 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,999 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,999 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $99,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Cedar Glen West Co-op 55 and Over Community. This 2 Bedroom Home has Upgraded windows and Hardwood Floors With NEW CARPET in Both Bedrooms and Both Bedrooms Have Been FRESHLY PAINTED. You can enjoy a relaxing day on your covered porch or take advantage of the free bus service to local shopping. Short drive to near by Swimming Lakes and Ocean Beaches and Boardwalks or take a short drive to Atlantic City. Your HOA fee covers Property Taxes ,Water ,Sewer, Lawn Maintenance , Roof, Gutters and Hot water heater and furnace.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,698
• After-tax cash flow: $6,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom home has average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor kitchen appliances — standard appliances
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace curtains — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom and enhances resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · standard appliances	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace curtains — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $99,000 MOMLS