11 B Lark St · Manchester, NJ 08759

$64,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1969 Average condition $67/sqft · 22% below area Est $83k · 22% under $510/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cedar Glen West Co-op 55 and Over Community. This 2 Bedroom Home has Upgraded windows and Hardwood Floors With NEW CARPET in Both Bedrooms and Both Bedrooms Have Been FRESHLY PAINTED. You can enjoy a relaxing day on your covered porch or take advantage of the free bus service to local shopping. Short drive to near by Swimming Lakes and Ocean Beaches and Boardwalks or take a short drive to Atlantic City. Your HOA fee covers Property Taxes , Water , Sewer, Lawn Maintenance , Roof, Gutters and Hot water heater and furnace.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Lawn maintenance
• Hot water heater

Tags

• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED PORCH
• HOA FEE COVERS PROPERTY TAXES
• LAWN MAINTENANCE
• HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,200/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,049 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.35%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,832
• List price: $64,999
• Delta: -21.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 B Dove St	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	5mo	$73,000	$75	88
22 C Robin St	0.12mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$158,000	$163	88
16 A Cardinal St	0.26mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$77	88
6 Dove St Unit D	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	8mo	$80,000	$82	85
1 B W Lake Dr	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	2mo	$56,000	$58	84
12 Heron St Unit D	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	980 (+1%)	6mo	$120,000	$122	84
18 Dove St Unit A	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	10mo	$69,900	$72	84
6 C Swallow St	0.23mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	7mo	$110,000	$113	84
17 Heron St Unit D	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	9mo	$55,000	$57	83
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	80
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (0%)	9mo	$45,000	$46	77
13B Pheasant St	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+13%)	5mo	$95,500	$87	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $39,417
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $99,603
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,000 ($91/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$510
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $64,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $824	-5% $801	+0% $779	+5% $756	+10% $734
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $692	+0% $779	+5% $866	+10% $953
Rate	-1.0pp $812	-0.5pp $795	base $779	+0.5pp $762	+1.0pp $745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	184d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Cedar Glen WestMonthly association fee of 510.0Association amenities: Community room, Clubhouse, Landscaping, Bocci, No poolAssociation fee includes: Trash, Common area, Lawn maintenance, Sewer, Snow removal, Water

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: 2 bedroom quad modelCooperative ownership
• Construction: Timberline roofShingle roofCrawl space basement
• Exterior features: Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingMulti-unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Window treatmentsLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $510/mo · $6,120/yr

• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $64,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $64,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $64,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $64,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $64,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $64,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $64,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $64,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $64,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $64,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $64,999 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $64,999 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $64,999 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $64,999 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $64,999 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $64,999 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $64,999 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $64,999 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $64,999 Active 17 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $64,999 Active 16 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $64,999 Active 15 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $64,999 Active 14 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $64,999 Active 13 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $64,999 Active 12 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $64,999 Active 11 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $64,999 Active 10 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $64,999 Active 9 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $64,999 Active 8 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $64,999 Active 7 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $64,999 Active 6 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $64,999 Active 5 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $64,999 Active 4 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $64,999 Active 3 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $64,999 Active 2 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $64,999 Active 1 DOM
36. 2026-10-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 183 DOM
37. 2026-09-30
    days on market $89,999 Active 182 DOM
38. 2026-09-29
    days on market $89,999 Active 181 DOM
39. 2026-09-28
    days on market $89,999 Active 180 DOM
40. 2026-09-27
    days on market $89,999 Active 179 DOM
41. 2026-09-26
    days on market $89,999 Active 178 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $89,999 Active 177 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $89,999 Active 176 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $89,999 Active 175 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $89,999 Active 174 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $89,999 Active 173 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $89,999 Active 172 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $89,999 Active 171 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $89,999 Active 170 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $89,999 Active 169 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$6,120
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,214
• After-tax cash flow: $7,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,850–$14,550 screening

This 2-bedroom home has average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor kitchen appliances — standard appliances
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace curtains — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Cedar Glen WestMonthly association fee of 510.0Association amenities: Community room, Clubhouse, Landscaping, Bocci, No poolAssociation fee includes: Trash, Common area, Lawn maintenance, Sewer, Snow removal, Water

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: 2 bedroom quad modelCooperative ownership
• Construction: Timberline roofShingle roofCrawl space basement
• Exterior features: Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingMulti-unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Window treatmentsLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-02 Listed $64,999 MOMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $89,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $99,000 MOMLS