437 E Germann Rd · San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$114,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 5,220 sqft · Land public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an amazing home with a rare 4 bedroom/3 bathroom layout. Master Suite features a garden tub and separate shower, inside laundry washer/dryer included, eat-in kitchen with island Vaulted ceilings, ceiling fans, Jack and Jill bathroom, covered patio on northside great for grilling, large screened in patio area for extra outdoor living space to injoy the great Arizona weather, separate storage shed/hobby/tool shop. Double covered parking. New A/C 2015, new roof 2021 and water heater 2024. Great friendly 55+ Gated community. Price significantly reduced below zestimate for quick as is sale and to replace carpet.

Key facts

• Separate shower
• Eat-in kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• JACK AND JILL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• J O Combs Unified School District (4445) (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #109 of 249 in AZ (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 823 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.42%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $63,137
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $150,741
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85140

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 823
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $1,339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $114,900
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2016-01-20
    soldstatus $14,630,000
18. 2008-08-28
    historical
19. 2008-08-28
    historical
20. 2008-08-26
    historical
21. 2008-08-22
    historical
22. 2008-07-30
    historical
23. 2008-07-29
    listed $119,900
24. 2008-07-12
    listed $99,900
25. 2008-06-17
    listed $84,900
26. 2008-06-03
    listed $79,900
27. 2008-04-05
    listed $109,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,673
• − Management: −$2,673
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $15,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,645
• After-tax cash flow: $12,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: J O Combs Unified School District (4445)
• NCES district ID: 0403990
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,053
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7314
• State rank: #109 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 95,704
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,260
• Household income: $101,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.81%
• Current HPI: 268.1579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $114,900 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com
• 2016-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $14,630,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-07-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-07-29 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2008-07-12 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2008-06-17 Listed $84,900 ARMLS
• 2008-06-03 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2008-04-05 Listed $109,990 ARMLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,200 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.